The Red Wings trade deadline gamble is already backfiring

The Red Wings finally bought at the trade deadline, but passing on a center might come back to haunt them.
Dennis Schneidler-Imagn Images

For the first time in nearly a decade, it felt like the Red Wings approached the trade deadline like a team that actually intended to matter in April. General manager Steve Yzerman finally bought instead of sold, and landed Justin Faulk, who wasn’t window dressing like Craig Smith last year; it was a real add with real utility, and the extra year of term made it feel like more than a short-term caffeine high.

But even with that progress, the deadline still left Detroit exposed in the one area they’ve been walking a tightrope for seasons: the middle. I feel like I've been writing the same thing for eight years now about the center position (or lack thereof).

Now that Dylan Larkin and Andrew Copp are injured( in fairness, both occurred after the deadline), the consequences of not adding a center—particularly a non-rental with term—are no longer theoretical. They’re actively shaping Detroit’s results, their five-on-five process, and the way this season is starting to echo the frustrating March slides of years past.

Would this team survive if they had traded for one of Vincent Trocheck, Rorbert Thomas, or Elias Pettersson? Maybe. At least they'd have a better chance of weathering the storm than they do with J.T. Compher, Marco Kasper, and Michael Rasmussen as the 1-2-3.

I need to stress this again for the keyboard warriors: the pushback is obvious and not wrong. These injuries happened after the deadline. Nobody can predict injuries and when they will occur. The issue is that you don’t need to predict timing to understand risk, and Detroit’s risk was always concentrated at center. When your roster is already operating with limited insulation down the middle, losing your 1C and then losing another key player in Copp doesn’t just “hurt.” It changes the architecture of your game.

When Larkin is out, Detroit loses its most important forward. That doesn’t just mean fewer points in the standings. It usually means tougher minutes get redistributed to players who aren’t built to win them. This, in turn, shows up in the team’s expected goal share and high-danger chance profile at five-on-five. Larkin is the proverbial bus driver for the team.

Failing to address the need for a 2C will come back to haunt the Red Wings

The “thin down the middle” conversation is measurable: it means more time defending, fewer controlled exits and fewer controlled entries. Most of all, it menas fewer sequences where Detroit can extend offensive-zone time long enough to generate multiple looks in a shift. At this point, you are relying on J.T. Compher, Marco Kasper and michael Rasmussen to have much greater assignments than they are used to. They'll be asked to punch well above their weight moving forward.

Playing without Larkin is devastating, but with Copp also going down, it compounds the situation. Unfortunately, it might be too much to withstand. Even if Copp isn’t your primary driver the way Larkin is, he’s an important part of the second wave despite his scoring limitations.

Center injuries tend to cascade in a way winger injuries don’t. Wingers can be slotted; centers have enhanced responsibilities that are harder to fake. Once you start forcing players up the lineup at center, you often weaken two or three lines at once rather than just one. They lose redundancy. Redundancy is what prevents another season from collapsing in March.

That’s what makes the deadline so important in hindsight. Detroit was rumored to have legitimate interest in centers Vincent Trocheck, Robert Thomas and even Elias Pettersson. The common thread among those names isn’t just star power, it’s a consistent contributor on the second line. This, in turn, would slide Copp (when healthy) down to the third unit. Having a player such as Compher or Kasper replace Copp on the third unit, or even the second unit, doesn't hurt nearly as much as asking them to drive the first line for what turned out to be a lengthy period of time.

This group of players are centers with top-six impact and term. They help you score and protect your five-on-five units when injuries inevitably hit.

If Detroit had added that kind of player, they wouldn’t be asking depth options to play above their pay grade right now. They’d be shifting matchups, stabilizing the middle and keeping their five-on-five numbers and the misfortune of March from eroding.

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