Unfortunately, the Detroit Red Wings are stuck between a rock and a hard place.
If they keep trying to contend in a highly-competitive Atlantic division, they invite the same failures of past seasons. If they throw in the towel, they risk frustration among players like Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond.
At this point in time, general manager Steve Yzerman may need to start having uncomfortable conversations with his team and their pending free agents. Players like Justin Faulk and Andrew Copp, both unrestricted free agents next offseason, could be on the chopping block if the season goes south for the Red Wings.
But the real prize for would-be contenders is 40 goal-scorer Alex DeBrincat.
Should DeBrincat and Yzerman not reach an agreement on an extension, both parties could mutually agree to work a trade to a Cup contending team.
What an Alex DeBrincat trade could look like
Alex DeBrincat will doubtless command a high return from teams looking to win a Stanley Cup. He's a high-end, 40 goal-scorer that immediately adds a hefty boost of offense to any team. Best of all, he comes in cost-controlled at $7.875M. If the Red Wings retain salary on his trade, the acquiring team has even more flexibility at their disposal.
There's no situation where the Red Wings don't recoup massive assets in return.
Sure, DeBrincat is a pending unrestricted free agent, but it's not every day a 40 goal-scorer with an affordable contract becomes available. As far as similar contract benchmarks go, the Red Wings could aim for a return similar to Mikko Rantanen.
Rantanen was traded twice in a short span of time, with Martin Necas, Jack Drury, a second round pick and a fourth round pick going in his first trade and Logan Stankoven, two conditional first round picks and two third round picks going in his second.
While DeBrincat has yet to reach the career highs Rantanen has, DeBrincat has benefit of flexibility at his disposal. Should the Red Wings retain 50% of DeBrincat's salary, any team that trades for him can acquire a top-scoring forward with a measly $3.93M cap hit.
The sooner the trade, the better return
Unfortunately for Yzerman, the Red Wings and DeBrincat, any decision about the direction of the team will have to wait until the Dylan Larkin fiasco is figured out. The return for the soon-to-be-former captain will ultimately affect the direction the team takes in the future. If they get NHL-ready players, Yzerman may opt to focus on trying to make the playoffs this season. If they aim for futures, they may elect to trade DeBrincat sooner.
A team may be willing to pay even more for a full year of cost-controlled DeBrincat than they would the final 20 or so games of the season.
Ultimately, if a deal can't be found between the two parties, it may be in both groups' interests to part ways for the best return.
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