The Detroit Red Wings' first quarter of the season wasn't perfect, but it was good enough to catapult them well into the early playoff hunt. They also found ways to string together lengthy winning streaks and points streaks, a sign of a great team in the making. But despite that, ESPN's Greg Wyshynski clocked them in with just a 34.9 percent chance to make the playoffs.
Wyshynski's reason? He wrote, "The Red Wings' offense should be better than their production. They're ninth in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 but rank 26th in goals scored. Getting Patrick Kane back from injury has helped, but Detroit needs to find a little more help beyond its consistent offensive options such as Alex DeBrincat and Lucas Raymond.
"Cause for concern: Wait, wasn't John Gibson supposed to be the answer in goal when GM Steve Yzerman acquired him from Anaheim? Gibson has been outplayed by incumbent Cam Talbot this season, sporting a .875 save percentage in 11 starts and playing to slightly below replacement levels."
Detroit Red Wings' scoring depth isn't as bad as it looks
While their low ranking in goals scored at 5-on-5 needs to get better, there is good news beyond Kane's recent return. Moritz Seider found his groove as a playmaker, Emmitt Finnie is on pace to be a 20-goal player, Axel Sandin-Pellikka is looking more comfortable and contributing, and Nate Danielson is coming off a breakout game.
Marco Kasper is also worth noting here. Kasper may only have three points (all goals) in the first 20 games this season. But it's still important to stress that Kasper didn't get hot in 2024-25 until midseason. Right now, there's no need to panic, and if he gets it together, the Wings have scoring threats all over their top and middle six.
Sure, the Red Wings can afford to see more production from players like J.T. Compher, who is again underperforming, Michael Rasmussen, who's looking like more than an afterthought, and James van Riemsdyk, who has just two points in 15 games.
The scoring depth isn't perfect, and the Red Wings can stand to acquire another player or two to round out the lineup. But this group is winning games, and it has the pieces in place to get relatively deep, especially if Kasper makes his presence known.
Goaltending isn't a concern if Cam Talbot can hold the fort down
Everybody knows John Gibson has been horrible to kick off the season, but we're not in "John Gibson or bust mode." Cam Talbot's age may be a concern, but if he keeps playing the way he has, with a 0.897 save percentage and 2.64 GAA, then the Wings have a better chance than what Wyshynski's giving them.
The Red Wings have allowed just 26.3 shots, on average, at Gibson and Talbot, so it's not like they're making life difficult for the duo. They are allowing slightly more high-danger chances than the league average, 150 allowed vs. 148 allowed for the rest of the NHL, but that's still a manageable number. For Talbot at least, it's more than manageable.
Overall, the Red Wings have been playing a solid game offensively and defensively, even if it's flawed. But there's hardly a single team in the NHL that doesn't have a glaring hole or two right now. While it's easy to agree with Wyshynski that a few more puzzle pieces are needed, to clock their playoff chances in at 34.9 percent misses the mark.
And with a younger team like the Red Wings, one with three rookies (Finnie, Sandin-Pellikka, Danielson), and three second-year players (Kasper, Simon Edvinsson, Albert Johansson), taking the ice full time, experience will be their greatest teacher. Since all six of them look like they belong, they will only get better as the year progresses, should they stay healthy. That's good news for Red Wings fans who are raring to see a playoff berth, and bad news for Wyshynski's projection.