Sports fans can be impatient. I know, I just dropped a bombshell. Hard to believe I know, but it’s true.
The especially passionate fanbases–like fans of Original Six franchises to varying degrees–can be even more demanding of their teams when things aren’t ideal.
The Detroit Red Wings certainly aren’t immune to or ignorant of the fact that some fans are losing patience amidst the team’s current playoff drought. If the Detroit Red Wings fail to reach the postseason this year, it will mark the ninth consecutive season they have done so.
With that theme in mind, here are three reasons the Red Wings should take a conservative approach at the trade deadline.
A playoff spot is a long shot at this point.
Depending on what model you look at, the Red Wings' chances of making the playoffs are slim. Money Puck currently has them at 15.8%, 22nd in the league. The Athletic’s model is even more pessimistic, giving Detroit just a 6% chance. Either way, not numbers that instill much hope.
The problem lies in the current NHL point structure. With the 2-1-0 point system, it makes it more difficult for teams low in the standings to make up significant ground on teams ahead of them. If they aren’t beating teams in regulation, they simply are not making enough progress. Take the Columbus Blue Jackets for example.
At this point, I would not set making the playoffs as the bar to measure the team’s success for the rest of the season. Instead, I want to see if they maintain their elevated level of play since Todd McLellan became the coach. If they can, then they can ride that momentum into next season and look to make a serious postseason push.
Giving up prospects for a high-priced free agent would be a mistake
I will preface this by acknowledging this would not apply to every hypothetical situation. If Mitch Marner were to be on the table, and he agrees to sign long-term, then you make it happen. The same could be said about Brock Boeser or Sam Bennett, two more pending UFAs.
The point being, that it is not worth giving up valuable assets for a rental or the next in a slew of veterans who have not brought greater success. If you were to land a big name they need to have term, or an agreement in place to sign with Detroit. Even then, it depends on the player and the prospect.
J.T. Miller has term, but would you want to give up a top prospect for a player that will be paid $8 million when he’s 37? I wouldn’t. Especially for one of Detroit’s top prospects. Steve Yzerman has been able to accumulate a strong pool of young players. There is no need to give up a player who could be a key piece of the franchise’s future for a desperate push.
They’ll have money to spend in the offseason
If the Detroit Red Wings sit tight at the deadline, then it leaves them with flexibility once free agency opens on July 1st. Puckpedia currently projects the Wings to have over $18 million in cap space. That is more than enough to sign a big-name target without sacrificing additional assets.
Patrick Kane, Jeff Petry, and Ville Husso will all come off the books next season. The Detroit Red Wings have enough goaltender depth in their system that they won’t have to replace Husso’s spot. The same can be said about Kane and Petry if Michael Brandsegg-Nygard and Axel Sandin Pellikka can make the NHL roster.
That could leave a lot of options for Yzerman and company in free agency. Assuming Mikko Rantanen signs with Carolina, he’s no longer on the table. Plenty of talent may still be available, including Marner, Boeser, Bennett, Nikolaj Ehlers, or Ivan Provorov.
I am among those who still believe in the Yzerplan, and I do not think it’s time to panic or do anything rash yet. The team now has the right coach, a wealth of developing prospects, and money to spend forthcoming. The big picture is more important.