Solid October doesn't magically solidify Red Wings' future concerns

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It seems like a lot of pundits — both of the professional and armchair variety — will end up owing the 2023-24 version of the Detroit Red Wings an apology of sorts. This team isn’t running away with the President’s Trophy, but they aren’t rapidly sinking down the dog-eat-dog Atlantic Division standings either. Ten games into the campaign, Detroit has rung up 13 points in ten games, which is good for second place in the division.

There are reasons to be optimistic about this version of the Winged Wheel. After a summer of handwringing about free-agent signings galore, the Red Wings actually appear to be jelling in a way virtually no one saw coming.

Alex DeBrincat’s homecoming couldn’t have been scripted any better. He’s been the electric goal scorer Detroit has badly missed over the last several seasons, and seemingly every puck No. 93 touches is ending up in the back of the net. What should be making fans even more excited, though, is just how well the new wing has clicked with Dylan Larkin. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that the first ten games of the Red Wings’ season have represented some of the captain’s best work.

Overhauled defense core is performing above expectations for the Red Wings.

Moritz Seider entered play on Halloween trailing just Adam Fox in total points scored. Shayne Gostisbehere has been an incredible offensive force, and only three teams in the NHL carry a better power-play conversion rate than Detroit. It’s all coming up roses in Hockeytown, but that doesn’t magically mean that Steve Yzerman’s rebuild is off, and the Red Wings are ready to contend with the top teams in the league. There are some causes for concern here, and they are worth keeping an eye on — even as fans rightfully celebrate an excellent October.

(Photo by Chris Tanouye/Freestyle Photography/Getty Images) /

Lack Of Discipline Proves Costly For Red Wings

A glaring issue has emerged over the last week of play. Taking penalties late in games is one of the hallmarks of a bad NHL team, and it’s been a real issue for Detroit. On October 24, the Red Wings led the Seattle Kraken in the third period. Two needless infractions allowed Seattle to tie the contest up late, and they’d eventually go on to secure the extra point in overtime. That’s a winnable game that simply needed to be iced with five minutes remaining. Detroit couldn’t find the handle, however.

Four days later, David Pastrnak was slashed on a breakaway late in the third period of a one-goal game. The Boston Bruins’ best player made no mistake with the ensuing penalty shot, putting the Red Wings’ comeback hopes on the ice for good. Another penalty stripped Detroit of a possible point in the standings — against an Atlantic Division rival, no less.

Then, on October 30, the New York Islanders were on the ropes when another late tripping penalty allowed them to get back into the contest. The Red Wings had rallied in the third period, but the stick infraction forced them to secure the win in overtime. An overtime that very easily could have gone the other way, based on how Ilya Sorokin had been performing.

All told, Detroit has taken late penalties in three of ten games and has lost themselves two points in the standings because of it. This is a really, really bad habit that Derek Lalonde needs to erase, and quickly.

Score-By-Committee Problems Arise For Red Wings

The game plan heading into this season is simple on paper: roll four lines and generate offense from everyone on the roster. Larkin and DeBrincat have been excellent, but the idea of the last two offseason splurges has been to spread out the scoring, creating matchup issues for the opposing team.

When it’s worked, it’s been beautiful to behold. Early season wins over the Tampa Bay Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Columbus Blue Jackets showed what the Red Wings can look like when things are clicking. Bottom-six forwards are typically bottom-six forwards for a reason, though, and when their sticks go cold, suddenly, Detroit is much easier to defend against.

That came to a head against the Islanders and Bruins, where the Red Wings had difficulty punching through and making things happen in the offensive zone. The forwards almost seemed passive after seemingly scoring at will through the first few games of the campaign. There was no traffic around the net, and the top two lines, mainly, were prone to getting too cute with their passes.

That’s where a genuine game-breaker like Boston has in Pastrnak can make a huge difference. Alex DeBrincat was brought in to be that kind of force, and so far, he has been. But the top line will be continuously exposed to tougher matchups if the likes of David Perron, Klim Kostin, and Daniel Sprong can’t find the score sheet while facing softer defensive coverage.

Underlying Numbers Still Don’t Like The Red Wings

Look, they play the games for a reason. In the playoffs, small sample sizes don’t matter if they are in your favor. The regular season is an absolute slog, however, and the Red Wings don’t look particularly good under the hood as October rolls over into November.

Only seven teams have a lower expected goal percentage at even strength than Detroit, and eight squads have a higher shooting percentage than the Red Wings. This team isn’t going to score on nearly 13 percent of their shots all season. Nor will they continue to average four goals a game like they have to this point. The ingredients are there for a nasty regression, especially if Villie Husso remains average.

The next few weeks will tell us a lot about what this version of the Red Wings is really made of. Seven of their next ten games come against teams that made the playoffs last year. Toss in a game against the Ottawa Senators, the new-look Blue Jackets, and the better-than-expected Montreal Canadiens, and this upcoming stretch could mean more for Detroit’s season than October has. And the Red Wings have a few things to clean up if they want to stay in the playoff hunt for another month.

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Stats appear courtesy of MoneyPuck.com and NHL.com and are accurate through games played on October 30.

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