Picture it: the year was 1971.
Everybody was singing “Joy to the World” by Three Dog Night, and Gene Wilder starred in the classic film Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory.
To this day, this film has to be the best iteration of the franchise. My favorite memory of watching it was back in 2010. Most of my cousins were in town for a graduation party. Ranging between the ages of 13 and 23, we gathered around the TV to choose a movie from the hottest new thing: Netflix. Of course, we landed on Willy Wonka. It was a great time.
Nowadays, the Detroit Red Wings are attempting to channel their inner Charlie and find the golden ticket. In this case, the golden ticket is reaching the number of points to make it to the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade.
Angst is budding among the fanbase. Regardless of the need for patience or understanding, Detroit sports fans see the success of the Detroit Tigers and Lions and wonder why their most successful franchise hasn’t put it all together yet. We can explain why until we’re blue in the face, but at the end of the day, results are the only thing that matters.
A question is brewing: how many points will it take for the Detroit Red Wings to comfortably make the playoffs? Any reasonable way they get home-ice advantage?
Since making the coaching change, the Red Wings have been lit ablaze. However, the actual points they have earned aren’t that different from last year, but how they earned them is, as Hockeytown Rundown eloquently illustrates:
"Based on the records, the Detroit Red Wings are in the same spot as close as ever with a one game difference compared to last season [octopus emoji]Hockeytown Rundown
23-24 season: 30-20-6
24-25 season: 29-22-6
The difference? Before December 27th, they were 13-17-4.
Since December 27th, they are 16-5-2 [fire emoji]"
Allow me to emphasize: “Before December 27th, they were 13-17-4. Since December 27th, they are 16-5-2.”
Ridiculous. Filthy. Crazy.
The Detroit Red Wings seem to have found their groove—if you will.
Yet, they’re in the toughest stretch of hockey this season in more ways than one.
First, they lost their number two center, Andrew Copp, for the rest of the year. Say what you will about Copp. I know I have made countless jokes and complaints at his expense, but he was a welcomed success story after the coaching change (among many others).
Now, the team needs a center who has likely spent time (or most of the time) this season on the wing to shift back to center. Then, they need J.T. Compher to fill the hole left by Copp. Otherwise, the ship is going to take on water far too quickly to keep playoff dreams alive.
With the trade market being so sparse, as many teams are still in a playoff hunt of their own, there is little hope of a rescue from an outsider. I can dream all I want to about the Detroit Red Wings acquiring Elias Pettersson (the forward or, quite frankly, the defenseman at this point—who cares), or we can use any other example. The short of it is that we likely won’t see general manager Steve Yzerman make a big splash (even with the huge cap space he has to offer).
With so few options available, trade prices will be higher than ever. Additionally, there’s no need to hemorrhage the future of the Red Wings Yzerman so meticulously crafted for short-term gain.
Marco Kasper is possibly the best option to play second-line center if Compher doesn’t work out. Also, Amadeus Lombardi and Nate Danielson are progressing so well with the Grand Rapids Griffins in the American Hockey League (AHL). I pause whenever anyone says we need long-term help at the center.
Of course, nothing is set in stone, and these prospects may not be what we hope at the National Hockey League (NHL) level, but they have shown incredible, projectable skill.
Both players need to add strength and continue to develop this season with the Griffins. Starting next season, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if one or both make a push to join the opening night lineup for the Red Wings.
If the Detroit Red Wings go out and trade for a center, I think the player would either need to be a stopgap (one or two-year contract with a reasonable cap hit with a strong two-way game), but I’m not sure who could be acquired for a late round draft pick or a current bottom-six roster player. I wouldn’t give up anything more than that unless it’s Pettersson or Mikko Rantanen coming back.
Second, the Detroit Red Wings have the toughest schedule in the NHL to finish the season, according to Tankathon.
The good news is that the New York Rangers and Columbus Blue Jackets haven’t fallen behind (second and fifth, respectively), and who are breathing down the Red Wings’ proverbial necks in the standings. Meanwhile, the Toronto Maple Leafs, Montréal Canadians, and Ottawa Senators have the easiest of schedules in that order.
Facing the toughest schedule with only the number one center spot solidified is a scary thought.
On the flip side, it’s a great opportunity for players to step up in a new role.
The new head coach, Todd McLellan is a strong voice in the dressing room who holds players accountable. Yet, he doesn’t let those things get the best of him. He’s reasonable with expectations and when those expectations aren’t met, he doesn’t throw the player away. McLellan and his staff coach the player, then throw them back on the ice (often without the player missing a shift).
Take, for example, Simon Edvinsson and Albert Johansson. They were on the ice for two goals in the fading seconds of the games against the Minnesota Wild and Anaheim Ducks. On top of that, Johansson didn’t have his best game in the rematch against the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday night. Instead of Johansson being thrown into the pressbox (we still have William Lagesson, who is still a capable hockey player, regardless of him warming the pressbox since the dawn of time), Johansson kept getting chances.
These chances paid off for both Johansson and the Red Wings when he set up the game-winning goal for the Red Wings against the Wild in their rematch.
If McLellan keeps instilling confidence in players, allowing them to make mistakes, learn, and grow, the Detroit Red Wings will be fine even with the treacherous schedule ahead.
Three, I think it’s important to look at the overall playoff picture.
As of writing this, the NHL website shows the Detroit Red Wings are sitting in the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference with 66 points in 58 games played. If we scan the list, just below the Wings is the Columbus Blue Jackets, hot on the Red Wings’ tail with 64 points in 58 games played.
In the Atlantic Division, the Tampa Bay Lightning is in third with 70 points in 57 games played, the Florida Panthers are in second with 73 points in 59 games played, and the Toronto Maple Leafs lead the pack with 74 points in 58 games played.
(For anyone curious, if the playoff started today, the Detroit Red Wings would face the Toronto Maple Leafs, which I would be all here for—tons of skill and speed without too many scary players involved.)
The New York Rangers sit at 62 points in 58 games played, as does the Ottawa Senators, so neither is far behind the Red Wings. There’s also the Boston Bruins with 62 points in 59 games played, the Montréal Canadiens with 59 points in 58 games played, and the Philadelphia Flyers with 59 points as well in 59 games played.
For what it’s worth, even the last-placed team in the Eastern Conference, the Buffalo Sabres, sits with 53 points in 56 games played. In short, nobody is really dead in the water out of the playoff race. Is it likely the Sabres will make it? No. Have wilder things happened before? Certainly.
Of course, the performance of these other teams plays a role in the Red Wings making the playoffs. However, it’s a nice change of pace to see the Wings being in charge of their own fate rather than relying on luck to earn their golden ticket.
Typically, 95 points or more reasonably gets a team into the playoffs.
By my count, 24 games remain for the Red Wings, and with their 66 points, it leaves a 29-point gap (essentially 14.5 wins—keeping in mind that overtime wins can be bad for tiebreakers, so winning in regulation is always preferred).
If the Red Wings want any semblance of having home-ice advantage, it’s reasonable to assume 100 points or more is needed. I think this idea is a bit far-fetched for the Red Wings.
If they do it, great, but that shouldn't be any fan's expectation. They're still playing excellent hockey, but with the tough road ahead and the number of question marks just getting in the playoffs is the only realistic hope for the Red Wings (though I hope they prove me wrong).
There aren’t any guarantees with any of these numbers. Also, if somebody stumbles for too long, they will be left out of the playoff picture. These stumbles could make getting a playoff ticket punched easier (or not, depending on who is falling).
Without any additions via trade, the question marks loom larger and larger each game. So far, the young players have answered the bell, and veteran players have regained their form. Still, there is an understandable request from fans to have some sort of trade to reward the excellent play of the Detroit Red Wings thus far. We know there are plenty of roles that the Red Wings could upgrade via trade.
I think instead of trading as a reward, Yzerman won’t be trading at the deadline. These players have gotten the Red Wings this far. It’s only right that they continue carrying the team. We may not like it and it may not be pretty, but they’ve earned their shot at the playoffs as a collective group.
Despite the public opinion raining on the Detroit Red Wings parade time and again, questioning Yzerman at every choice, the team is persevering.
I get why fans are demanding playoffs. My personal preferences don’t matter much, but for what it’s worth, I don’t think it is playoffs or bust for Hockeytown. They’re right where they should be in their development—even after a shaky start to the season.
Veterans are finally leading the way or stepping aside to let young players take their place on the team.
We have Moritz Seider developing, Lucas Raymond proving his star power to the world, Marco Kasper not only playing on the top line but improving it, Elmer Söderblom showing why he was worth every second fans had to wait for him to return to Motown, Edvinsson playing out of his mind, Johansson taking steps in the right direction, and everyone else chipping in as best as they can.
This season has been a success, and anything outside of these young players developing at this high level is icing on the cake for me.
If they end up finding their golden ticket and join the rest of the teams in the Chocolate Factory (in this case, the NHL playoffs), I would be thrilled. Still, the way they’ve bought into becoming a team and progressed since late December is even more impressive.