The Dylan Larkin-Detroit Red Wings showdown is becoming a soap opera rivaling the best daytime television has to offer. Shortly after the public learned that Detroit Red Wings captain Larkin made his request, they also discovered his restrictive list of three teams he'd be willing to join.
Those teams include two-Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers, this year’s Stanley Cup runner-up (and 2023 champion) Vegas Golden Knights and the rising Minnesota Wild who recently acquired superstar defenseman Quinn Hughes.
It's been nearly two months since the Larkin fiasco began. Here's where we're at:
Red Wings are right to stand firm on Larkin
With the salary cap rising quickly, a massive $18-million offer sheet going to young star center Leo Carlsson has given the entire league a look into future contracts. By next summer and beyond, any genuine top-line or top-pairing skater is looking at a $12 million minimum average annual value. In that context, Larkin’s $8.7 million cap hit over the next five seasons is quite possibly the best value in the entire NHL. He has scored 30 goals in five-straight seasons and is a strong two-way player with elite speed that should maintain value as he hits age 30 this year.
While many negative things can be said about the Red Wings' inability to build a playoff team under Larkin, leading him to this current predicament, he is right to stand firm in this situation. Larkin is easily the most valuable trade commodity in the NHL and contending teams have shown no hesitation in dealing futures, which then-generla manager Steve Yzerman didn't want, for similar pieces like him. However, Brady Tkachuk only had two more years left on his deal and told Ottawa he wouldn’t re-sign, putting them in a fundamentally different position than Detroit is in with Larkin’s five remaining years.
With the Red Wings hungry for a winner and Larkin only offering a limited list of trade destinations, the both parties appear to be at an impasse. So what can they do?
Carolina can offer Larkin and Detroit what they want
Larkin wants to go to a team that can realistically win a Stanley Cup now. The Red Wings want a return that can push them forward this season. There is one team that can settle this dispute in a way that leaves both parties happy: the defending Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes.
Unlike previous champs such as Florida and Vegas, Carolina built their team without needing to deal much in the way of future assets. The biggest splash move they made, trading for Mikko Rantanen in before the 2025 deadline, blew up in their face fast enough to deal him weeks later to Dallas for pieces that helped them hoist the Cup this year.
While veteran Jordan Staal became the league’s oldest Conn Smythe Trophy winner for playoff MVP, the team improvised with their second line center position behind Sebastian Aho for most of the year. Acquiring Larkin would fortify the Hurricane’s depth down the middle. In addition, they also have plenty of young talent who contributed heavily to the team’s title run.
With that in mind, if all three parties can reach an agreement, this move would make sense for everyone involved:
Carolina receives: Dylan Larkin
Detroit receives: Logan Stankoven, Alexander Nikishin, Pyotr Kochetkov and a 2027 first-round pick
In this move, Carolina gets a legitimate top-line center who can slot in as a 1B option to the similarly productive Aho. Staal continues to be a leader who chips in offense in a bottom-six role. The Hurricanes would still have a strong lineup of wingers in Seth Jarvis, Nikolaj Ehlers, Andrei Svechnikov and the up-and-coming Jackson Blake. Their defense would remain stacked with K’Andre Miller, Jaccob Slavin, Shayne Gostisbehere and company and they still bring back surprising Stanley Cup-winning netminder Brandon Bussi while cashing in on the oft-injured Kochetkov.
In return, Detroit gets:
- Stankoven, a 23-year-old forward just beginning an eight-year deal at $6 million per season coming off a 21-goal, 44-point season who then netted a team-high 11 goals in the playoffs.
- The signing rights to Nikishin, a bruising 24-year-old defender who contributed 11 goals and 33 points in his first NHL campaign.
- Kochetkov, a 27-year-old goaltender with 125 career NHL games and a strong 2.46 goals against average and .905 save percentage who is approaching free agency coming off surgery that ended his season early.
- An additional first-round pick in 2027.
This return is right at the edge of uncomfortable for Carolina, which likely means it is dead on value for a player as productive with a contract as favorable as Larkin. Nikishin wants a substantial pay raise as a restricted free agent after putting together a fantastic initial season in the NHL. Should the Red Wings come to terms with him and Simon Edvinsson on similar eight-year contracts, they would have a locked in blue line led by those two and top defenseman Moritz Seider for the foreseeable future.
Stankoven may still have room to grow offensively and held his own as a center, but plays wing traditionally and even at a small 5-8, showed immense toughness in scoring 11 playoff goals. Kochetkov allows for better insurance backing up John Gibson, who is also not the picture of health traditionally, than the unproven Michal Postava or Daniil Tarasov.
Should this move come to pass, the Red Wings can shift their focus on finding a center to replace Larkin. That could position them to make a play at someone like Columbus center Adam Fantilli, another restricted free agent, and perhaps pony up an eight-year deal in the vein of Carlsson, who will make $18 million this season. Or they could go bargain hunting and make a gamble on Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson, and hope that he can return to his 80-100 point form before these past two disappointing seasons.
In a league environment where the price for top talent is rising exponentially, the Red Wings carry the most valuable trade chip in the NHL. If Dylan Larkin and the Red Wings can put their feelings for each other aside for a moment, they can find a deal that allows both parties to make this divorce favorable for both parties.
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