Stop me if you've heard this one before: a veteran forward signs with the Detroit Red Wings, then proceeds to regress to the point where he's borderline unplayable.
That's exactly what would happen if the Red Wings decide to sign New York Islanders captain Anders Lee.
The 36-year-old left wing has regression written all over his stats. Last season, he managed a 19 goal, 42 point season in 82 games. He's always been a consistent 20-goal guy, netting at least 20 in nine seasons throughout his career -- 10 if we want to round up for this last season.
You might look at those counting stats and think "hey, 20 goals would be perfect to replace James van Riemsdyk's scoring!". Unfortunately, those numbers come at a much, much higher cost than van Riemsdyk's $1M contract.
Why the Red Wings should avoid Anders Lee
While Lee is reliable, having missed only one game over his last four seasons, the type of role he fills just wouldn't be effective with the Red Wings. He's a big bodied goal-scoring forward that munches minutes, but, at 36 years of age, it's hard to imagine that production will keep up in the long run.
Lee played on the third line with the Islanders alongside Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Emil Heineman. With the Red Wings, he'd likely be paired with either Andrew Copp or J.T. Compher and one of Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Marco Kasper or Carter Mazur. This would be well and good if he was making van Riemsdyk's salary, but AFP Analytics has Lee making around $6M per year over the next three years.
Ask yourself: are you comfortable paying a middle-six forward that's already seen a dip in his production $6M a year until he's 39?
It just doesn't make sense at this point in time.
Other solutions easily solve for Lee
Lee's reliability is hard to find, but finding replacement scoring is an easy solution. If the Red Wings want to reach into the free agency pool, they can take a look at players like Viktor Arvidsson, who scored 25 goals last season and consistently finds the back of the net. They can even reunite with former first round pick Anthony Mantha and hope his 30 goal season wasn't an aberration.
But free agency isn't the only path the Red Wings can take.
There are plenty of young, hungry players that are more than willing to take on that role for the Red Wings. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, as mentioned earlier, has the potential to be a reliable goal scorer if given the opportunity. Other prospects like Nate Danielson, Carter Bear, Max Plante and Amadeus Lombardi can jump in as needed, giving the Red Wings a chance to see what the kids can do at the pro level.
It just doesn't make sense to bring on yet another 30+ year old vet on a long term deal at this point in the rebuild.
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