The Detroit Red Wings have always lacked a high producing goal scorer, especially in the last 20 years, as their last 50 goal scorers were Sergei Fedorov and Ray Sheppard who had 56 and 52 goals respectively in the 1993-1994 season. This was the last time the Red Wings saw two players score more than 40 goals in the same season.
The team has not even had one 40-goal scorer since Marian Hossa in the 2008-2009 season. This problem looks to be changing this season.
Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin have both had great goal-scoring seasons heading into the Olympic break. With DeBrincat having 30 goals and Larkin with 26, the pair is on pace for 42 and 36 goals, respectively. The 28-year-old DeBrincat is on pace for a career high, as his current high is 41 goals. He came extremely close to hitting the 40-goal mark last season, as he ended the season with 39, the most he has scored in the Red Wings jersey. Larkin is also on pace for a career high this season, as his high stands at 33 goals, which came in the 2023-2024 season, where he only played 68 games.
What have they done to be in this position and how can they improve?
When looking at both players' stats, there are some underlying numbers as to why the pair of DeBrincat and Larkin are having such successful goal-scoring seasons. This number is their unblocked high danger shot attempts. What this number shows is that both players are getting to their best spots in order to get the best looks on net as possible.
DeBrincat is on pace for 38 unblocked high danger shot attempts, which would be one short of his career high from last season. Larkin is on pace for 48, which would top his current career high of 43, which was also done last season.
In order for both players to reach 40 goals, there is still a lot that needs to happen. DeBrincat needs to keep on his pace, which could be challenging considering how well his line has been performing this year. Where he could find improvements is on the power play, specifically the 5-on-4 scenarios, where he misses the net 41% of the time. If he can hit the net more frequently on the powerplay it could lead to not only more goals for himself, but also lead to the Red Wings powerplay finding good form again.
In order for Larkin to hit the 40-goal mark, he needs to increase his pace in these final 24 games. This season, he has a -0.6 goals above expected and a -1 goals above expected in 5 on 4 scenarios, showing that he has been a little bit unlucky thus far. With a little bit of luck and a possible addition of a top-six forward, Larkin could easily find the back of the net more often.
With the Red Wings controlling their own destiny, this is a big stretch upcoming. The continued goal-scoring success for Alex DeBrincat and Dylan Larkin will be crucial. With Larkin going to the Olympics, all fans can hope for is for him to come back from Milan as healthy as possible.
As for DeBrincat, he will not be attending the Olympics, whether fans agree with that decision or not from Team USA, it will be a much-needed break for a player who has carried a large load for the team so far this season.
If both players can slightly improve on the power play, the Red Wings could see two 40-goal scorers for the first time in 22 years, and they could also have their first 40-goal scorer since their last Stanley Cup Finals appearance in 2009.