Numbers, numbers, numbers
Expected Goals Against Percentage (xGF%):
Basically, how likely is a team to surrender a goal?
High Danger Chances Against (HDCA):
Not all goals are created equal, but historically, certain spots (such as the slot) have a higher percentage of leading to goals than outside certain areas. For high danger goals against percentage, it begs the question, how likely is a team expected to surrender a goal from a high danger area of the ice?
Corsi For Percentage (CF%):
Shot attempts for a team in a game outside of the shootout.
To learn more about ice hockey statistics, Natural Stat Trick is a great resource.
Of all the statistics, the Detroit Red Wings finished in the bottom-five in xGF% and CF%--meaning they were one of the worst teams in those categories. In terms of HDCA, they were middle of the pack.
In short, while they gave up a lot of chances and had a high likelihood of giving up goals, they weren’t giving up crazy high danger chances.
Projecting to the next season is tough, but it’s likely to be a step up in terms of xGF% and CF% (or it better be if Lalonde wants to keep his job). On the other hand, I don’t see the high danger chances against changing drastically either way.
For the upcoming season, I think I would rank the NHL teams as follows (worst to best):
31 - Chicago Blackhawks (gotta keep them down here when I can justify it)
30 - San Jose Sharks (love their newly acquired Detroit Red Wings players)
29 - Columbus Blue Jackets (hmmm)
28 - Anaheim Ducks (little ball of hate has some work to do)
27 - St. Louis Blues (such a pity)
26 - Montreal Canadiens (no explanation needed)
25 - Utah Hockey Club (they’ll be on the up and up)
24 - Ottawa Senators (lol)
23 - Calgary Flames (think this is a bit high for them, but don’t feel like re-numbering)
22 - Buffalo Sabres (probably outperforms this slot)
21 - Washington Capitals (get some goals, Ovi!)
20 - New York Rangers (holy goalie)
19 - Philadelphia Flyers (not buying in quite yet)
18 - Boston Bruins (are they done yet?)
17 - Pittsburgh Penguins (ew)
16 - Detroit Red Wings
15 - New York Islanders (they still go here?)
14 - Winnipeg Jets (have they gotten an airport, yet?)
13 - New Jersey Devils (might be a bit high)
12 - Tampa Bay Lightning (the cliff is coming)
11 - Minnesota Wild (define meh, sorry Kaprizov)
10 - Vegas Golden Knights (sure they find another cap circumvention)
9 - Seattle Kraken (coolest jersey colors in the NHL)
8 - Los Angeles Kings (always pulling for LA)
7 - Vancouver Canucks (EP40, Quinn Hughes, need I say more?)
6 - Carolina Hurricanes (have they reached a bazillion shots on net yet?)
5 - Edmonton Oilers (this might be a bit rich of a ranking, but too late to go back now)
4 - Nashville Predators (annoyed at how good they’ll be)
3 - Florida Panthers (*no repeat* *no repeat* *no repeat*)
2 - Colorado Avalanche (still think they have one of the best rosters)
1 - Dallas Stars (think it’s finally their year, Nill’s been patiently building)
What do you think, where would you rank the Detroit Red Wings defense amongst the other teams?