A deep dive into Moritz Seider and what he means to the Detroit Red Wings

After a Calder Trophy or Rookie of the Year, the season in 2021-22, Moritz Seider seemed destined for stardom. In 2022-23, we saw regression. Some observers argue that this season is an even further nose-dive into the depths of despair. On the other hand, Detroit Red Wings fans grow more defensive of Seider with each statistic that makes him look less than the stellar player they watch on a nightly basis. Who's right?

As the 2019 National Hockey League (NHL) draft approached, I watched the Detroit Red Wings’ equivalent of Simba returning to Pride Rock. I had a similar feeling to most Red Wings fans, I reckon. 

Nostalgia, excitement, and hope eclipsed me.

Watching The Captain, our Red Wings’ captain, return and walk up to the podium was a scene for the ages. The Yzerplan, dubbed by Red Wings General Manager (GM) Steve Yzerman, by got off to a wild start to say the least.

Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider shocked many, at the time.

I quickly found out that researching for any draft is a monumental task. Blindly, I fumbled through prospect profiles and draft boards for hours on end. It was about as effective as nailing jello to a tree.

A German player intrigued me while perusing Dobber Prospects.  Tony Ferrari, our favorite draft analyst, penned the following (published May 29, 2019):

“Being a high-end draft prospect coming from the German top league DEL is rare. Being an elite blue-line prospect coming from that league is even less likely. Moritz Seider is an intriguing player because of his tools and the lack of a prior precedent in his situation. The right-shot player is a solid two-way defender who is developing high-end skills one both ends of the ice.”

I thought that this player sounded perfect for the Red Wings. Then, I reviewed his public draft rankings (pulled from the link above): 

Moritz Seider Draft Rankings
- No. 19 per Cam Robinson
- No. 21 per TSN/Bob McKenzie
- No. 11 per HockeyProspect.com
- No. 17 per Future Considerations
- No. 26 per McKeen’s Hockey
- No. 17 by EliteProspects
- No. 27 by ISS Hockey
- No. 6 by NHL Central Scouting (EU Skaters Only)

Thus, my search for the next great Red Wings player continued.

When the Red Wings drafted Seider, I deferred to Brian Quinn of Impractical Jokers for my reaction, “’Tis Confusion.” 

Comedic relief replaced my confusion in the moments that followed as the reactions were priceless on my TV set and across the internet.

The roller coaster since the 2019 NHL draft for the Red Wings and Seider is an interesting one.

Maybe he’s not the German version of Nicklas Lidström, but I think we all agree he’s a darn good hockey player.

Moritz Seider's good, but how good can be for the Detroit Red Wings?

The biggest questions at this point include how good is Seider? Has he reached most of his potential? How much room does he have left to grow? Is it a matter of waiting—similar to what we saw with the current captain of the Red Wings in Dylan Larkin where he needs more of a supporting cast? Is he already an elite star player in the league?

The answers to these questions vary. 

Red Wings fans, myself included, seem to overvalue their players (I mean, I don’t know of any fanbases that don’t overvalue their players) while objecting to criticisms thrown their team’s way—especially towards the team's top players.

A team like the Red Wings in a city like Detroit, Michigan, makes it an even more delicate situation. 

Detroit, Michigan is underrated in every sense of the word. The prototypical underdog city that very few individuals appreciate outside of Michigan itself. The Chrysler 200 Super Bowl Commercial from 2011 sums this concept up pretty nicely:

Seider’s play makes it easy to root for Seider and defend him against anyone who sees him as less than a star player. The reasons fans might take it a step further and have an almost possessive quality over Seider might stem from people underestimating him in the same ways of Detroit. In many ways, Seider embodies the people of Detroit itself.

This season, Seider isn’t getting much love from people outside of the Red Wings fandom. 

Many stats show his numbers as poor with some nights showing that he was the worst on the team as depicted below:

Seider’s numbers in widely accepted statistics don’t look great either. The fact that he doesn’t look great in those statistics doesn’t do a disservice to Seider. Furthermore, they don’t invalidate the statistics. It serves as a good reality check for Red Wings fans.

His Corsi for percentage (CF%), or the “percentage of total Corsi while that player is on the ice for that player's team. CF*100/(CF+CA), and goals for percentage (GF%), or the player's percentage of total Goals while that player is on the ice that are for that player's team. GF*100/(GF+GA), are at a career low per NaturalStatTrick.com. 

I’ve seen a lot of reactions to numbers on social media rejecting those statistics because it makes Seider appear less than the star we all know he is for the Red Wings.

Stats don't always paint the whole picture.

While there are aspects of the statistics that accurately describe Seider’s game from my viewing, there are aspects that aren’t accounted for in Seider’s game. 

As an example, Seider held Connor McDavid to a two-point game on January 11, 2024. Also, he held his countryman, Leon Draisaitl, off the scoresheet entirely. It may have been an overtime loss for Detroit, but was a big game for Seider.

From a Red Wings fan perspective, Seider performed excellently. Whenever McDavid entered the Red Wings’ zone, he faced a brick wall that bit back every shift. Much like Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs, illustrated in this video, McDavid seemed frustrated as not a lot went his way with Seider on the ice.

At the same time, Seider didn’t drive play. He was effective with being reactionary. I could see non-Red Wings’ fans having a different reaction to this style of play. 

What seems to be lost on those fans is that Seider played over 25 minutes, the most on either team. More often than not those shifts were against McDavid, who logged over 23 minutes in the game. 

I can’t fathom asking Seider for more effort, skill, or productivity in a game against McDavid, but I suppose I understand an outsider’s mentality in that sense. 

Certain stats reflect Seider positively with some people, like Byron Bader, getting Seider’s impact:

Then, there is the Grind Line Podcast that points out:

In reality, statistics aren’t everything and can’t tell the whole story. 

As important as the statistic is, things like how it’s derived, the things it accounts for, the things it doesn’t account for, definition of its measurements, any possible variables, and so on. Practically anyone can create a stat to support their claims, but it doesn’t make that stat effective or helpful.

Moritz Seiders intangibles hold some weight with the Detroit Red Wings

Some of Seider’s best qualities are intangibles that aren’t quantifiable and aren’t appreciated until someone like Seider is on their team.

In the context the Red Wings and Seider, the CF% and GF% doesn’t account for the level of competition. Regularly, Seider plays the second or third-highest minutes on the team. For reference, Seider has played 1034:46 minutes, which is 156:27 minutes higher than the team's second-highest (Ben Chiarot with 878:19 time on ice.) For anyone wondering, Ben Chiarot has recorded the highest time on ice for those wondering with 749:25. (He’s been great, all things considered, but that topic is for another time and place.)

Seider’s minutes aren’t easy minutes. As with the game against the Oilers, the Red Wings regularly put Seider against the highest level of competition. He gets very few, if any, shifts against lesser competition. Also, Seider doesn’t get many offensive zone shift starts. For example, against the Oilers, Seider started zero times in the offensive zone, once in the neutral zone, and five times in the defensive zone. Chiarot and Jake Walman weren’t far behind, with four shift starts in the defensive zone. This means that not only does Seider face stiffer competition, but he does not start in a favorable zone either. 

Red Wings’ head coach Derek Lalonde is asking a lot of Seider. Maybe it’s justified and will make Seider better in the long run, as Seider has held his head above water this season. However, it may be a bit much at times. 

Changing things up every so often might help, but then we have to think of who takes Seider’s spot in the defensive zone or who has to face McDavid. These thoughts alone scare me as I don’t know who would be the best candidate.

These factors aside, there are aspects of Seider’s game that need to improve. Seider plays much more reactionary than proactively. From the neutral zone to the offensive zone, Seider plays with confidence and seems to have genuine fun. He plays with an edge in the defensive zone, but appears all business. If Seider could bring some of that swag from the neutral and offensive zone. 

Seider is wise enough to not make foolish plays, avoiding a poke and hope mentality. Rarely do I see Seider cheat for anything in any zone and I would expect this trend to continue regardless of how he plays in the defensive zone.

Now, I hear some fans defending Seider from this perspective. I appreciate your love of Seider and dedication to him. I understand that you believe that Seider is perfect. Wish I could have that same mentality, but I see more potential in Seider to unlock.

This opportunity should make it all the more exciting for Red Wings’ fans as they know how much effort Seider puts in on a nightly basis. We see his drive to be the best he can be for his team. To realize there is higher, untapped potential is tantalizing.

My favorite quality of Seider is his learning ability. I joked many times that Seider is a super-human computer and not an actual human. The way he just instantly learns from a mistake is incredible. Very few times have I witnessed Seider make the same mistake twice in his career since joining the Red Wings organization.

As defensemen join the Red Wings in Detroit, they should help alleviate some hard minutes from Seider and lessen his overall workload. In doing so, he should be better rested and face lesser competition at times to have more fun.