Daniil Tarasov stopped all 30 shots he faced through regulation and overtime in Montreal on Saturday, then denied the first five skaters he saw in the shootout. Zachary Bolduc beat him on Montreal's sixth attempt, so Detroit left with a 1-0 shootout loss and one point, which puts the team at 1-3-1. Tarasov left with his second career shutout, and Todd McLellan called his night "outstanding."
Montreal threw plenty at him
It wasn't for lack of trying on the Habs' part: Montreal put 30 shots on net and had three goals taken off the board, including an overtime winner that was erased on offside review. Tarasov also made the stop on a Juraj Slafkovsky one-timer from the slot, the best chance of the night. He did all of it on the second night of a back-to-back slate, a day after making his Detroit debut in relief in Friday's abysmal 6-3 loss to Seattle -- a game Gibson started but could not finish.
What the Florida numbers say
The line everyone quotes on Tarasov is 13-15-3, 3.05 GAA, and .895 in 33 games with the Panthers. I think it undersells him. He played behind a brutal, injury-battered roster, and in his first four starts Florida only mustered six goals. He went 0-3-1 while allowing 10. Once the team got healthier, he won four straight with a .944 save percentage and a 1.22 GAA, allowing only five goals with 8.63 goals expected, which works out to roughly 3.6 goals better than expected. Panthers defenseman Gustav Forsling called him "so calm, so steady." Seventeen of his 31 starts also counted as quality starts by Rob Vollman's method.
He entered this season with a career .897 save percentage over 98 games, so I'm holding off on any Vezina talk. But the underlying work looked better than the record reflected.
Tarasov looked the part in the preseason
Against the Columbus Blue Jackets in preseason, Tarasov and Michal Postava combined for a shutout that went all the way through overtime. Tarasov is a big guy at 6'5". He takes up a lot of the net, moves smoothly and remained consistent all night. His puck tracking seems top-notch, allowing him to react quickly to pressure and stop some of those high-danger shots others might not. If that is what Detroit gets on the nights Gibson sits, it is an immediate upgrade over Cam Talbot. He may even start a competition to take the net.
Gibson's slow starts are a pattern
Gibson started the first four games of the season and Detroit went 1-3 in those appearances. To be fair, Detroit had scored seven goals total before Friday, and Gibson made 24 saves in a 3-2 loss to Winnipeg, where the penalty kill let the team down.
But it's the history that matters more. From October 9 through November 30 last season, Gibson posted an .865 save percentage and a 3.59 GAA with a 4-7 record. Then he went 19-5-1 from December 2 through March 1, and Detroit won only nine of its next 19 after the Olympic break. He started 57 games last season, and McLellan admitted at his September presser that the team rode him too long. Gibson himself said he wanted to put "more emphasis on getting off to a hot start." We are still waiting for that hot start to show up.
Can Tarasov take the net?
Gibson is 33 and carries a $6.4 million cap hit that expires after this season. Tarasov is on a one-year, $2 million deal. Both are playing for their next contract, and Detroit has no reason to hand either of them 55 games by default. There are plenty of options at their disposal, but Detroit has, historically, never been the type of team to make a decision quickly.
I'd like to see Tarasov in net every other game until one of them forces the issue. One start is one start, and his career numbers say to stay cautious. But if Tarasov turns in another start or two like Saturday's, I don't see how McLellan keeps handing the net back to Gibson. I could see Tarasov holding the crease by the end of November.
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