With the NHL trade deadline rapidly approaching, one of the biggest unknowns around the NHL is what the Carolina Hurricanes and star forward Mikko Rantanen stand. Carolina shocked the league in late January, making one of the most unexpected blockbuster trades in recent memory.
The trade saw Carolina send Martin Necas and Jack Drury to the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Rantanen and Taylor Hall. When the trade was made, the expectation was that the Hurricanes would then sign Rantanen to a long-term deal. Fast-forward to just a few short days before the NHL trade deadline on March 7th, and Rantanen remains unsigned.
Would Carolina actually move on from Rantanen?
Nobody seems to know the answer to that question, aside from maybe the Canes front office. However, it does appear there might be at least some speculation Rantanen could get moved for the second time in as many months. The trade market seems to be in wait-and-see mode, and Carolina appears to be the culprit.
It also seems that the Hurricanes could be facing the same uncertainty on the situation as everyone else. NHL insider Elliotte Friedman reported on Saturday that Rantanen likely won’t commit to signing prior to the deadline. “It appears unlikely that Rantanen will make a decision by the trade deadline next Friday,” Friedman said on the Hockey Night in Canada broadcast.
It seems wild that a team would make a massive move for a player and then turn around and trade the same player so soon. However, Carolina tends to be unconventional. If any team was to do such a thing, it might be them.
Could Detroit make a push for Rantanen?
From a salary cap perspective, the Red Wings have the cap room to sign Rantanen long-term. As their roster stands now, Puckpedia has the team projected to have $25,088,611 million in cap space next year. That’s theoretically enough space to sign Rantanen to a big AAV (somewhere north of $12 million per year) and still have room to work with.
You might be asking, why wouldn’t teams just wait until off-season free agency to make a push for Rantanen instead of giving up assets for a potential rental? Fair question. In the Red Wings’ case, one would assume that Steve Yzerman wouldn’t make a move for Rantanen without an agreement in place to stay in Detroit. Not doing so could land the team in the same uncertain situation the Hurricanes are in now.
Additionally, any team with Rantanen on their roster on March 7th at the trade deadline is given a slight advantage in negotiations. This is due to the current NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement contract rules. Players who sign a new contract with the team they were with at the NHL trade deadline can sign an eight-year deal. If they sign with a different team, they can only sign a seven-year contract.
What would it cost?
That’s the $100 million question. The Hurricanes have reportedly already offered north of $100 million. Rantanen likely will look to be paid among the NHL’s elite. I would guess somewhere between Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6 million AAV) and Auston Matthews ($13.25 million AAV).
Detroit is among the teams with the cap room, but what would it cost in terms of players, prospects, or draft picks? Carolina would likely want at least a first-round pick and a player who can contribute this year. It would likely take even more than that, possibly a second player or a top prospect.
Personally, I’d be okay with giving up a first-rounder and, say, Vladimir Tarasenko for Rantanen. It’s highly unlikely that would be enough to get a deal done. Maybe the Wings could throw in Patrick Kane to sweeten the pot?
I’ve said before that Detroit should hold firm at this deadline, and not give up any top prospects to make a push now. There are a number of players on the current roster and in the pipeline that for me are untouchable. That list includes Lucas Raymond, Moritz Sieder, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Sebastian Cossa, and Trey Augustine.
Nobody saw the first Rantanen trade coming, so it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see it happen again before Friday. Detroit may be as likely a destination as any if Carolina decides to cut ties.