As of right now, Detroit Red Wings fans will have to wait until pick 47 of the 2026 NHL Entry Draft for the Wings to keep the party going.
That said, it might just be better if fans wait a little longer.
The probability of a first round pick making it into the NHL and playing over 99 games, per Dobber Prospects, is around 74%. In the second round, the odds drop staggeringly to around 34%.
When looking at Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman's track record with second round picks, that number drops even further. Here's a brief look at who the Red Wings have drafted in the second round from 2019-2022, when they were picked, their age and where they are right now:
Player | Pick year/number | NHL Games | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
Antti Tuomisto | 2019/35th overall | 0 | Currently with the Grand Rapids Griffins |
Robert Mastrosimone | 2019/54th overall | 0 | No longer with the club |
Albert Johansson | 2019/60th overall | 143 | NHL regular with the Red Wings |
William Wallinder | 2020/32nd overall | 0 | |
Theodor Niederbach | 2020/51st overall | 0 | No longer with the club |
Cross Hanas | 2020/55st overall | 0 | No longer with the club |
Shai Buium | 2021/36th overall | 0 | Currently with the Grand Rapids Griffins |
Dylan James | 2022/40th overall | 0 | Currently with the Grand Rapids Griffins |
Dmitri Buchelnikov | 2022/52nd overall | 0 | No longer with the club |
Since Yzerman took over, the Red Wings have drafted 14 times in the second round.
Just one (one!) second round pick has seen regular NHL ice time since Yzerman took over drafting. When compared to the NHL average of 34%, Yzerman clocks in at just a 7% success rate. That's a baffling figure in any sense of the word.
Now, to be fair, Trey Augustine and Max Plante look extremely promising. But "promising" and "productive" are two completely different ballparks. Sebastian Cossa looked promising at first, and now, at 23 years of age, he's on his way to Utah.
Barring a can't-miss prospect, there's no reason the Red Wings shouldn't trade their second round pick.
What the Red Wings could acquire with their second round pick
With Sebastian Cossa on his way out of the organization - and with the trade market in its current state - that second round pick might be a real sweetener for a team in need of draft capital. Should the Red Wings seek to trade Dylan Larkin before the end of the draft, they can package that second rounder for a much sweeter deal.
Jason Robertson of the Dallas Stars might not go one-for-one with Larkin, but, with a second rounder added to the mix, things could change quickly. Outside of the Larkin market, other players like Alex DeBrincat have been asked about. Could the Red Wings find a way to package that pick for a higher-end player like, say, Caleb Desnoyers of the Utah Mammoth?
That said, this might be a case of overvaluing a second round pick. But, with Detroit's inconsistent-at-best track record, what's the point in drafting at a 7% success rate? Why not see what you can do with the pick?
The classic draft and develop philosophy precedent Yzerman has established over the years might not be effective anymore. Both the Carolina Hurricanes and the Vegas Golden Knights built a large part of their squads through trades and free agency. In order to compete in the bloodbath that is the Atlantic, Yzerman needs to adapt.
Trading away his second rounder would be a step in teh right direction.
Add us as a preferred source on Google