A statistical deep dive into John Gibson's recent turnaround

The early struggles to stellar recent form – analysing the numbers behind John Gibson’s recent bounceback.
Detroit Red Wings v Vancouver Canucks
Detroit Red Wings v Vancouver Canucks | Rich Lam/GettyImages

John Gibson, the recent goaltending issue for the Detroit Red Wings, has been improving lately, and hopefully, this progress is sustainable.

The organization has struggled mightily to find a stalwart in goal since Jimmy Howard called it a career. General manager Steve Yzerman has tried numerous options, including Jonathan Bernier, Thomas Greiss, Alex Nedeljkovic, Ville Husso, Petr Mrazek, Alex Lyon, and, most recently, Cam Talbot.

Talbot, of course, has remained the second half of Detroit's tandem in 2025-26 as he enters the final year of his two-year contract. In fact, until the past week or so, Talbot remained Detroit's top option this season. The veteran netminder has posted a 9-5-2 record to pair with a 3.01 goals against average and 0.885 save percentage.

John Gibson's early season woes

Gibson's arrival in Detroit was met with mixed feelings among the fanbase. Many were optimistic, hoping that Gibson would be able to do something nobody in recent years had managed: stabilize the goaltending position.

The other portion of fans voiced their displeasure with the addition, stating that Gibson's best days are long behind him and that he's been quite injury-prone in recent years. People wondered why a team like the Edmonton Oilers, who are considered a Stanley Cup contender looking for an upgrade in goal, hadn't made a move for Gibson despite being linked there. The Oilers recently made a transaction, shipping Stuart Skinner to the Penguins and acquiring Tristan Jarry from them.

For the less optimistic Red Wings fans, their worst nightmare quickly became a reality because, through October and November, Gibson's numbers were among the league’s worst for starting goaltenders.

Gibson posted an atrocious 4-7-1 record to go along with a 3.59 goals against average and 0.865 save percentage. He also maintained a 0.810 save percentage in high-danger areas and a horrendous minus-7.4 goals saved above expected (GSAx).

John Gibson's dramatic turnaround of late

Oddly enough, the narrative shifted dramatically in December. Over his last five games, Gibson has transformed into one of the NHL’s hottest netminders.

Over the past five games, Gibson has posted a 5-0 record, which includes two shutouts over his past three starts. Over this five-game span, Gibson has posted a 0.940 save percentage and a 2.00 goals against average.

Gibson has demonstrated outstanding rebound control and puck tracking, which is reflected in his significant increase in high-danger save percentage. Gibson's allowed rebounds have dropped from 5.2 to 2.1 per game, indicating improved rebound control. He's faced a high volume of shots, including several games with over 35 saves, and has consistently kept the Red Wings competitive in tight matchups.

The Red Wings have collectively gotten better defensively, as reflected in the rapid decrease in slot shots against over the past five games, down a whopping 28 percent. Gibson's Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of plus-5.2 during this period ranks him among the top three goaltenders in the NHL. A final impressive stat, Gibson has gone from minus-4.9 to plus-3.8 in Goals Saved in Even Strength (EV GSAx), during this stretch, confirming he’s excelling in critical game situations.

After a rough start to the year, Gibson's recent five-game stretch has been nothing short of elite, supported by a ton of advanced analytics and traditional statistics. If this trend continues, the Red Wings could be poised for a strong second half, with Gibson as the linchpin of their playoff push.

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