The Vegas Golden Knights are making their third trip to the Stanley Cup Finals since debuting as a franchise during the 2017-18 season. In that time, the Detroit Red Wings have played exactly zero playoff games.
One area that has fueled the Golden Knights’ multiple deep runs in the playoffs has been their willingness to buck the traditional draft-and-wait model that passes for conventional wisdom for building a competitive NHL roster. The tradeoff for their aggressive strategy is a roster that is frequently pushing right up against the salary cap, leading to some creative (and since banned) methods of moving salary around on their roster.
As general manager Steve Yzerman’s rebuild enters year seven fans are justifiably concerned about the direction the franchise is taking. One sore spot on the roster is the lack of production of the team’s non-Dylan Larkin centers, something Yzerman himself highlighted in the team’s year-end press conference. Unfortunately, an already underwhelming free agent market is getting thinner by the day at center.
While there are certainly some creative options out there such as swinging a trade for Mavrik Bourque’s rights or taking a calculated risk for a star who has fallen on hard times like Elias Pettersson, there are other options out there. Team has roughly $33 million in cap space to work with entering next season. Only Simon Edvinsson is due a significant raise on the current roster. They can also weaponize their cap space to take players who may still have something left in the tank, but whose contracts are pinching their teams.
Vegas’ Cup bill coming due this summer
The Golden Knights represent one such team feeling the pressure of the salary cap. Depending on what Alex Pietrangelo does next season, Vegas has between $4.6-13.4 million in cap space with only 15 or 16 (out of 23) roster spots accounted for and a pair of free agents who could be due big pay increases. Defenseman Rasmus Andersson, a trade acquisition from Calgary, is looking for a long-term deal and a likely increase from his previous 6-year/$4.55 million per year contract.
As a dependable top-four defenseman with some offensive ability, he seems likely to command at least seven or eight million even with giving Vegas a discount. Should Alex Pietrangelo’s $8.8 million contract be relegated to season-ending injured reserve once again, Vegas could keep Andersson around by essentially moving the cap hit to him instead of Pietrangelo.
Another player due for a significant pay increase is Russian winger Pavel Dorofeyev, who is a restricted free agent coming off a 37-goal season (on a $1.85 million salary), his second-straight year with at least 35 goals. The 25-year-old is the only player on Vegas’ roster who was originally drafted by the franchise. Even with a hometown discount, you have to figure Dorofeyev gets at least a $6 million contract on a bridge deal, if not a possible lucrative extension at roughly $8 million or more.
If you give Andersson and Dorofeyev contracts at the lower end of what they could make, say $7 million for Andersson and $6 million for Dorofeyev, Vegas would have 17 players signed with only $400,000 remaining to add six more players to fill the roster. That won’t even fit a single entry-level contract. Something has to give.
Tomas Hertl and William Karlsson can help the Red Wings
The Red Wings can both weaponize their budget and improve at the same time. Vegas has built a team with a lot of depth at center, which is why they have reached three Stanley Cup Finals since 2018. Two candidates in particular stand out as trade candidates: Tomas Hertl and William Karlsson.
Tomas Hertl played all 82 games this season for Vegas and finished with a solid 24 goals and 58 points as the team’s second-line center. He plays physical, earning114 hits on the season and is very good at faceoffs (57.8% this year, 54.3% in his career). His 58 points would have finished fifth on the Red Wings and been 15 points ahead of the team’s nominal second-line center, Andrew Copp.
Hertl consistently drives play in the offensive zone (56.4% Corsi at 5-on-5 this year, 53.1% in his career). The 32-year-old carries a $6.75 million cap hit with Vegas, his contract running for the next four seasons.
William Karlsson is only a year older than Hertl, but carries significantly more wear and tear. The 33-year-old center logged just 14 regular season games this year before a significant lower body injury kept him out until the second round of the playoffs. Karlsson has five points with a goal and four assists in 10 playoff games this year. He carries a cap hit of $5.9 million on his current contract, which expires after next season.
Over his career, Karlsson drives play at 5-on-5, posting an even-strength Corsi of 53%, including 51.4% in his 14 games this year. He also wins faceoffs at a high clip, sporting a 51.3% winning percentage at the dot and winning over 55% of his draws in each of the past four seasons. However, injuries have limited Karlsson to just 67 games over the past two seasons, though he played 70 games with 30 goals and 30 assists the year prior to this stretch. Vegas regularly deploys Karlsson on the penalty kill, where he has been fantastic defensively and scored seven or more shorthanded goals three times.
Hertl or Karlsson could be acquired cheaply
Hertl has been a productive player throughout his career and Karlsson is still a net positive when he stays healthy. However, their age, salary and the Golden Knights’ crunched cap next season should lower the asking price to acquire either player.
Karlsson has been with Vegas since they joined the league in 2017-18, but could well be on his way out due to his $5.9 million cap hit and increasing injury history. The Red Wings could acquire him for the cost of William Wallinder and a 4th or 5th round pick. While his injuries are a concern and this could easily blow up in Detroit’s face, his contract ends after this season, making the signing low risk. Adding Karlsson would not leave Detroit any worse off at center than they currently are and it wouldn’t significantly hurt the Red Wings' farm system.
Despite a much cleaner bill of health, Hertl may be the riskier play. The 32-year-old has four more years on his contract and plays a physical game that result in more injuries. Additionally, he fell off a bit at the end of the season with just seven points in his last 23 regular season games.
Due to his track record up to this point, Hertl is likely to require more assets than Karlsson to acquire. That could mean as high as a first-round pick or a more valued prospect or young player such as Nate Danielson or Marco Kasper. Hertl is unquestionably better than both of those players right now, and likely will be next season, but would you sign him at 32 to a nearly $7 million cap hit for the next four years today? Someone almost certainly would, but I’m less certain that is wise.
The verdict
Detroit needs center help badly and should perform due diligence at all corners of the league to improve their biggest sore spot on the roster. Both Hertl and Karlsson are likely to be dangled this summer and Detroit is positioned to take advantage of it.
Ultimately, if I am Steve Yzerman, I want to add two centers from outside the organization who have a chance to be a second-line option or better. Both Hertl and Karlsson represent that type of player. Hertl is a better bet to be that player over the next couple seasons, but age is starting to catch up to him, which could leave Detroit holding the bag for some ugly seasons down the road.
Karlsson has a wide range of outcomes over his career, scoring 30 goals in 2023-24 and netting only 13 since. However, his upside, low acquisition cost, shorter term, and ability to contribute defensively and on the penalty kill represent one of the best opportunities for Detroit to upgrade its center position cheaply.
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