After you take a few weeks to fully assess what Steve Yzerman did for the Detroit Red Wings earlier this month, you can think with a clearer mind. Well, at least that's what they tell us, so I'll give it a go.
Anyway, as the headline implies, the Red Wings look like a team heading into the 2025-26 season that can go in two extreme ways. You may find them gearing up for another year as a fringe 'wild card' contender, or they might flame out by Thanksgiving, or at least by the end of the calendar year.
Wait, flame out? Yep, that's what I'm calling it, because the Wings, while talented with another year of experience under them for their young core players, still look like they have depth issues.
But you need to remember that I'm going through the best and worst-case scenarios, so this isn't one of those pieces in which I'm saying the Wings will either contend for a wild card spot or the season will end in turmoil before it even reaches the halfway point.
That said, let's talk about the best and worst-case scenarios that this offseason has brought so far as far as the current projected lineup goes. Of course, this is all contingent on the here and now, and will change should Yzerman shock us and bring in another player.
Serious wild card contention is where the Red Wings sit if they don't add anyone else
I'll even go as far as to say serious wild card contention without a late-season meltdown attached, something that's been painful to watch over the past two seasons. This means the Wings will have either the first or second spot right there for the taking even if they'll face some heated competition.
In this case, Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, Marco Kasper, and Simon Edvinsson upgrade their games. John Gibson slides in as the No. 1 netminder, stays healthy, and plays like he did last season, and someone locks down a spot at winger in the top six, like Elmer Soderblom.
The Red Wings get more physical with players like Mason Appleton and Albert Johansson in the lineup, and J.T. Compher thrives in a fourth-line role while Andrew Copp picks up where he left off from last season.
Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat prove they're once again a lethal tandem, and James van Riemsdyk shows the world he has one more 20-goal season left in him.
No, the Red Wings won't contend for the top three, but in this scenario, they'll all but find a home as a wild card team and bust that playoff drought in Season 100. While I doubt they do anything in the playoffs, making it to the postseason alone will be a massive boost for them.
The Red Wings proving they've seen better days in Season 100 would be your worst-case situation
Oh boy, this one would have more of a contingent of fans calling for the team to get rid of Steve Yzerman if we see massive regression. But, now that I've had a few weeks to think about it, I'm leaning toward the Wings giving him another year, especially if Axel Sandin-Pellikka and Nate Danielson make such strong strides in the AHL that they'll be surefire NHLers next year.
Anyway, in this scenario, opponents expose the Wings massive gap in the top six, and nobody shows they're capable of maintaining the spot. The Wings try player after player, but nobody sticks, while Patrick Kane shows his age and becomes a liability.
John Gibson struggles to stay healthy, and when he's good to go in the net, he's playing like he's still behind those awful Anaheim Ducks teams from earlier in the decade. The Wings give him little help up front and they aren't physical.
Even if Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond prove to be a lethal combo here, there are too many liabilities elsewhere. Mason Appleton proves he shouldn't be anything more than a fourth liner, J.T. Compher proves he's finished, and Andrew Copp doesn't rebound the way we all hoped.
James van Riemsdyk's playing like someone who needs to retire and Cam Talbot's left wondering why he also didn't hang up the skates. And finally, Alex DeBrincat's on the first line, trying too much to make something happen and struggling.
Realistic scenarios that would take the Wings in completely different directions
Both of these scenarios are realistic, and they would have dramatic differences on how the Wings move forward. Should the former happen, expect the Wings to (finally) buy at the 2026 trade deadline. As for the former? They'll 'sell off' their aging players and put them with contenders.
If there's any upside to the worst-case scenario here, it's that they could end up entering the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes. So, maybe the worst-case is nothing more than a blessing disguised as the world's biggest curse in Year 100.
Of course, this is all speculative, and the most realistic case will likely end up somewhere in the middle. That means, at the moment, I'm still in the camp that says the Wings didn't do enough in the offseason to make the playoffs.
As for the upside? If Sandin-Pellikka, Danielson, and goaltender Sebastian Cossa take over the AHL, oh, the better days might just begin in Year 101. I'll at least leave you with that little ray of hope.
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