On the surface, Elias Pettersson seems like an ideal candidate for the Detroit Red Wings.
Pettersson is a Swedish center who scored over 100 points just a few seasons ago. At 27 years of age, he's in the prime of his career. But, after a few underperforming seasons with the Vancouver Canucks, it's clear Pettersson needs a fresh start. He's even been linked to the Red Wings a few times.
So why should the Red Wings avoid trading for him?
After all, he's a young center with the potential to serve on the top line. He could be Dylan Larkin's replacement. Best of all, he will likely come at a discount to the Red Wings given the current state of his contract. With the salary going up over the next few seasons, what's the downside in taking a swing on Pettersson?
At this point in Pettersson's career, the risk might not be worth the reward.
Pettersson's cost comes with heavy risk
It's true that Pettersson scored 102 points in 80 games with the Cancuks once. The caveat, however, is that that feat was accomplished four seasons ago. At the end of the 2026-27 season, he'll be five years removed from that level of production. Since then, his scoring has fallen precipitously, following up that season with 89, 45 and 51 points, respectively.
Is there a chance he could return to form? Certainly. But there's also a chance that he remains at this 40-50 point level for the remainder of his career. His salary comes in at $11.6 million for the next five seasons and carries a no movement clause similar to Dylan Larkin's. Pettersson would immediately become the highest paid player on the Red Wings.
$11.6M for a 40-50 point forward sounds like a recipe for disaster. If you thought the fans were upset by J.T. Compher or Andrew Copp's contracts, they'd be outraged at the Red Wings trading for one of the worst contracts in the NHL.
Some may see this as a non-issue as the salary cap is set to rise significantly over the next few seasons. Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider are on some of the best deals in the NHL and give their team much more flexibility to make moves. But is wasting that flexibility on a potential 50-point guy worth the risk?
It's hard to tell what kind of player Pettersson will be moving forward. That said, it's clear he (and the Canucks, for that matter) need a clean break.
A way the Red Wings can have their cake and eat it
There's certainly a route where the Red Wings can get a player like Pettersson without having to feel the full sting of that $11.6M cap hit. It involves a bit of creativity, but it's certainly a route the Red Wings and Canucks can take.
There are two routes the parties can take: salary retention or getting a third party involved. If the Canucks were willing to retain more of Pettersson's cap hit, the Red Wings could get away with a $8M or so forward with that level of risk. That said, the cost would likely go up, thus eliminating the tantalizing discount the Red Wings could receive on a Pettersson trade.
The other option involves getting a third party in the picture. One suitor in particular - the Minnesota Wild - might be just the candidate for this type of deal. Minnesota is desperate to land disgruntled soon-to-be-former captain Dylan Larkin. Adding the Wild to the mix could potentially create a deal that makes every party happy.
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