What an eventful and, yet, uneventful offseason it has been for the Detroit Red Wings.
Despite the start of training camp, there's still a lot to sort out in Hockeytown.
Detroit finally started chipping away at the offseason to-do list, naming Shawn Horcoff the interim general manager exactly two months after announcing that Steve Yzerman would no longer be the GM.
But the Dylan Larkin saga remains unsolved, and Simon Edvinsson still doesn't have a new contract.
Despite all the chaos and turmoil that is the 2026 offseason, you might be wondering what success looks like for this Red Wings team.
Defining a successful season will change depending on what the team looks like, so let's break it down.
If Larkin stays, it's playoffs or bust
Larkin staying for any length of time is probably the least likely of the scenarios, as the team announced last week that he would no longer serve as captain of the Red Wings.
Stripping him of the captaincy tells us he hasn't had a change of heart and wants out of Detroit. But of course, he's still under contract for another five years, so Horcoff (or a more permanent GM) has no reason to grant that wish without a fair deal in place.
But let's say that Larkin does play out the whole season and endures all the boos and jeers that come with it; anything short of a playoff berth would be a failure.
Detroit just ended last season missing the playoffs for the 10th consecutive season, the longest active drought in the NHL. For the third year in a row, they held a playoff spot late in the season, then suffered a monumental March collapse. The team can't keep wasting the best years of Larkin, Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond and Alex DeBrincat.
Even being swept in the first round would be better than missing the playoffs for an 11th straight season.
Unfortunately, it's not going to be easy, as they are up against a stacked Atlantic Division. The Florida Panthers had an off year last season but should be in contention for a top spot. The Buffalo Sabres, Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens aren't going anywhere. The Ottawa Senators lost Brady Tkachuk, but will it be enough to drop them from the playoff conversation?
The Red Wings are a better team with Larkin, but even with him, a playoff berth is no guarantee.
If Larkin goes, the team needs to push for a top 5 pick
If Horcoff fulfills Larkin's trade request at any point during the season, a successful season will mean the Red Wings are picking in the top five of the 2027 draft.
The Red Wings are a fringe playoff team with Larkin, so they'll need to retool once he's gone.
Detroit's worst-case scenario is if Larkin is traded at the deadline and the Red Wings finish just outside the playoff bubble. Now you've lost your best center and are picking in the mid-to-late teens, where it's much harder to find a franchise center.
Ideally, the Red Wings get off to a slow start, Larkin opens up his trade list because he can't handle the fans' disdain, and Detroit gets a good package of top-level prospects and maybe a roster player. The team plummets down the standings and drafts their next top-line center, maybe Brock England or Alexis Joseph.
Of course, picking in the top five doesn't automatically guarantee the Red Wings a playoff spot in the 2027-28 season — and there's no guarantee England or Joseph even become top-line centers — but it sets them on the course to being competitive in the next few years rather than being stuck in the mushy middle.
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