October can be an interesting month for the NHL.
Every player is still shaking off the rust after a long summer. And while preseason games help players get back into game shape, they aren't as intense as the regular season.
One such player currently experiencing a slow start for the Detroit Red Wings is forward Lucas Raymond.
The fourth overall pick in the 2020 NHL draft hasn’t scored in his first six games of the 2026-27 season. This follows 25, 27 and 31 goals in the previous three seasons.
He does have four assists, three of which came in the Red Wings’ only win of the season (5-3 against the Ottawa Senators). But two of those assists came on the power play.
Overall, Raymond has just one point on the season: an even-strength assist in six games.
So, what’s going on?
Raymond is shooting the puck
His lack of success isn’t because he isn't trying. Raymond is taking a lot of shots.
He’s currently third on the team with 18 shots, behind only Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (19) and Alex DeBrincat (24). And it’s not just shots on goal; it’s also attempts (or Corsi for).
According to Natural Stat Trick, Raymond is second on the team in shot attempts with 38, behind DeBrincat’s 53.
Over 406 career NHL games, Raymond has a 14.2% shooting percentage. So, at the very least, he should have two goals. I expect he’s enduring a bit of bad luck, and we should see a regression to the mean.
Raymond has a history of passing up shots to make the perfect pass to his teammates, but that’s not the story this season.
Let’s take a look under the hood and see what the underlying stats have to say.
What the advanced stats have to say
Raymond is getting his chances at 5 on 5, but he hasn’t converted.
As the table below shows, Raymond's individual expected goals are up about 0.5 from last year. In other words, Natural Stat Trick’s model suggests he should probably have at least one goal this season. He’s taking quality shots, but they haven’t turned into goals yet.
Season | Shots | iCF | iHDCF | Goals | ixG | SH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025-26 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0.31 | 50 |
2026-27 | 9 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0.88 | 0 |
Note: All stats at 5 on 5 from Natural Stat Trick.
Additionally, he’s shooting the puck more and shooting in more dangerous areas, as evidenced by the increase in individual high-danger Corsi for.
Remember: It’s a small sample size, and these kinds of stats work best with more data. But Raymond appears to be on a bit of cold streak.
Working against Raymond — and the rest of the NHL — was the shortened preseason. Going from eight preseason games to four this year is a major change. It forced players to ramp up much faster than in previous years, which means more struggle in regular-season games.
If Raymond plays 15 or 20 games without a goal, then we could be looking at a bigger issue. But for now, he should keep doing what he’s been doing, and the goals should come.
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