When NHL teams are rebuilding, expectations usually rise from below. What this means is that as an organization accumulates young talent throughout the rebuilding process, that talent eventually pools in the minor leagues, specifically the American Hockey League (AHL). Once there’s a deep pool of talent at that level, winning becomes the expectation just like it will at the NHL level.
With the Detroit Red Wings seemingly on the precipice of rebuilding their rebuild, the Grand Rapids Griffins – Detroit’s AHL affiliate – have had the fortune of being spoiled with talent for a few years now. When Dan Watson was named the Griffins’ head coach ahead of the 2023-24 season, his track record of producing wins and long playoff runs with the Toledo Walleye of the ECHL was often cited as the reason he was the right person to shepherd the Red Wings’ flock of young talent.
Since then, Watson and the Griffins have done a lot of winning, with 125 wins in 216 games, including last season where they recorded 51 wins, the second-highest win total in franchise history. However, they have fizzled out of the playoffs in three-straight seasons, failing to progress further than the second round of the playoffs along the way.
Winning is always welcome, especially when you’re trying to establish a culture of winning at the organizational level like the Red Wings are. But whether it’s the NHL or the AHL, winning is temporary; banners fly forever. After a few seasons with plenty of wins but nothing to show for it, it’s time for Watson and the Griffins to re-establish themselves as a true contender in the AHL.
Griffins expected to be loaded on paper – again
There is obviously a lot still to be figured out in Detroit, and the decisions made there will almost certainly have a ripple effect on what happens in Grand Rapids this season. Even before training camp begins, the Griffins project to have a solid combination of youth and experience, with high-end talent projected at key positions.
Michal Postava, Trey Augustine and Carter Gylander could form a legitimate three-headed monster in goal for the Griffins this season as all have proven themselves capable of stealing games at the AHL level. The Red Wings seem positioned to provide NHL opportunities for their young goaltenders this season, so it will be interesting to see how the goalie battle in Grand Rapids shapes up with that “carrot on a stick” in play.
The Griffins’ defense may be headlined by two exciting Swedes this season, starting with Axel Sandin-Pellikka. After playing most of last season with the Red Wings, he was sent to Grand Rapids after Detroit acquired Justin Faulk at the trade deadline. The Red Wings may find themselves in a spot where they must choose between giving Sandin-Pellikka third pairing minutes in the NHL or top pairing minutes in the AHL, and we all know how that debate usually ends.
The other Swede is Anton Johansson, a 2022 draftee expected to play his first full season in the AHL. His strong play at both ends of the ice makes him a sneaky bet to make the Red Wings opening night roster, and a fairly conservative bet to play big minutes for the Griffins this season. He has 11 points in 19 regular season appearances with the Griffins prior to this season.
William Wallinder, a veteran of three AHL seasons, may or may not return as he must pass through waivers before reporting to the AHL this season. Shai Buium, a second- round pick in 2021, enters his third AHL season with much to prove as he has yet to truly assert himself at the AHL level. William Lagesson returns for his third season in Grand Rapids and will be leaned on as the “adult” on a blue line filled with young pros.
Up front, the biggest question mark is probably Nate Danielson as he may make a play for a roster spot in Detroit this season. The ninth pick in the 2023 draft has 54 points in 89 regular season AHL games, including 15 in just 18 games last season. After his season was cut short due to a lower-body injury, the amount of rust in his game might dictate where the soon-to-be 22-year-old starts the season.
Even if Danielson doesn’t spend significant time in Grand Rapids this season, veteran Sheldon Dries should retain a spot in the Griffins’ top six, and newcomer Théo Rochette is expected to provide some offense after lightning up the Swiss league the last three seasons.
Captain Dominik Shine and winger John Leonard will provide veteran moxie for the Griffins this season, and it wouldn’t be surprising if both see some time in the NHL too. Leonard scored 33 goals in just 47 games for the Griffins last season and should be able to provide consistent offense again, and Shine is known and adored as the heart and soul of the Griffins.
Throw in the upside of young talent like 2025 first-round pick Carter Bear and 2022 second-round pick Dylan James and you can see the makings of another Griffins team capable of winning a lot of games and vying for a Calder Cup championship.
For Watson, the challenge is pulling it all together and producing that kind of run.
Watson's tenure so far
It is a quantifiable fact that Watson’s teams play winning hockey. During his tenure in the ECHL, he and the Walleye made the Kelly Cup Final twice, in 2019 and 2022. While they weren’t able to get the job done either time, it was that track record of winning in the regular season and the playoffs that led him to become the 12th head coach in Griffins history.
Since becoming the Griffins’ head coach, Grand Rapids has been in the playoffs every season, making it to the second round in two of his three seasons. What is concerning is that, as the Griffins prepare to celebrate the 10-year anniversary of their 2017 Calder Cup championship, the team has established a trend of losing their gameplan as the stakes get higher.
Last season, the Griffins averaged 3.54 goals per game and 2.21 goals against per game. Those are rates consistent with a division-leader just as the Griffins were last season. However, their goals per game rate dipped to 2.63 during the playoffs, almost a full goal less than they scored during the season. Their goals against rate was consistent and even improved at 2.13, but their dip in offensive production ultimately led to their early demise.
Looking back to Watson’s first season behind the bench, the Griffins averaged 2.89 goals for during the season, but dipped to 2.67 during the playoffs – not nearly as big of a drop as they had last season, but a drop in production, nonetheless. Their goals against rate again remained steady, going from 2.81 in the season to 2.89 in the playoffs.
The numbers back up the idea that the Griffins tighten up in the playoffs and don’t play the high-octane game they prove capable of playing during the season. To some extent, this makes sense; most teams focus on playing responsible hockey during the playoffs, and the Griffins have had the defensive and goaltending talent to believe they can grind out 2-1 victories throughout the playoffs.
But there is a difference between playing responsibly and trying to avoid mistakes. The best teams play the game on their terms, and the Griffins often looked content to counterpunch during the playoffs last season instead of forcing the other team tocounter them. This wasn’t a problem during Watson’s time with the Walleye, and his challenge this season is to give the Griffins the confidence to play their game past the month of April.
A closer look at the front office
Sooner or later, the Red Wings are going to hire someone to lead the front office. Once that person is in place, they will be tasked with identifying and addressing any deficiencies within the organization. Anyone and everyone who that person did not hire will be put under a microscope, including the head coaches in Detroit and Grand Rapids.
The Watson era of Griffins hockey has been marked by regular season success, individual development and disappointing playoff runs. Given that the AHL is mostly seen as a developmental league, his ability to develop the Red Wings’ young talent is probably the biggest thing he can hang his hat on: Cossa, Simon Edvinsson, Albert Johansson, Marco Kasper, Carter Mazur and Amadeus Lombardi (now in the New Jersey Devils organization) have all taken steps forward under Watson’s watch – and there are others that could be mentioned too.
But the Griffins pride themselves as one of the top organizations in the AHL, and the Red Wings are invested in the Griffins’ success. Furthermore, leading the Griffins to their first conference final since 2017 would go a long way towards cementing Watson as one of the top coaches in the AHL and a true asset to the next regime in Detroit.
Every team enters every season with something to prove, whether it’s as a group or as individuals. The Griffins are no different this season, but with the state of flux the Red Wings are in, it is maybe more important that the Griffins meet their goals than ever before. Michigan hockey fans are starving for a championship contender, and the Griffins have been their best bet the last few seasons.
With Red Wings fans looking for reasons for optimism moving forward, it’s time for Watson and the Griffins to pay off that bet.
Add us as a preferred source on Google