Unfortunately for Detroit Red Wings interim general manager Shawn Horcoff, he wasn't exactly set up for success.
There is a reason why coaches, players and general managers hate the idea of short-term contracts. We hear all the time about the “lame duck” coach or the player entering a season on the edge of becoming an unrestricted free agent and the uncertainty that comes from those situations. The Red Wings have put Shawn Horcoff into the GM version of that exact circumstance.
Shawn Horcoff has to make a long term decision for a storied franchise without the security to really choose that lane due to his interim tagReports from the likes of Elliotte Friedman, Darren Dreger or Helene St James have forecasted two very different directions for the franchise based off of these reported asks for Dylan Larkin and Simon Edvinsson respectively.
For Larkin, the reported ask has been (and remains) win now players. With Edvinsson, the reported ask is more open-ended, with the Red Wings open to players on the verge of breaking into the NHL. What certainly doesn't help Horcoff is that, no matter what he does, the pressure of the last decade will weigh on his tenure.
Taking a short-term path
If Horcoff chooses the short term path on these trades, there is a chance that he satisfies the ownership group's directive to not take a step back. Perhaps it helps him land the GM role into the future. With that said, is it the correct path for the future?
Below, I've laid out two hypothetical trades that the Red Wings could take to try and secure win-now assets:
If the team is looking to win now, these options give Horcoff a lot of flexibility. The Red Wings immediately upgrade their defense and forward group depth while still securing high draft picks to utilize in the future. Dylan Strome immediately slots into the team's top-six, replacing Larkin, while Ivan Miroshnichenko and Bobby Brink provide some secondary scoring.
Cam York provdies more defensive strength, giving Axel Sandin-Pellikka and Anton Johansson some sheltered minutes. The picks can be used to secure additional roster players, similar to how the Red Wings acquired Alex DeBrincat with the draft pick they secured in the Tyler Bertuzzi trade.
Here's what the lineup could look like before the picks are utilized:
DeBrincat - Finnie - Arvidsson
Brandsegg-Nygard - Strome - Raymond
Miroshnichenko - Copp - Brink
Kolesar - Compher - Rasmussen
York - Seider
Al. Johansson - Faulk
Chiarot - An. Johansson
The biggest downside to this route is that Detroit's replacements are in the aggregate rather than one-for-one star players. None of the players in the proposed Larkin trade project to have Larkin’s impact in the short or long-term. While Cam York is a high end defenseman, he isn’t the same player as Simon Edvinsson -- nor will he have the same impact. While teams have won Stanley Cups in the past with depth (look at the 2019 St. Louis Blues and 2026 Carolina Hurricanes), this doesn't help to accomplish that goal in the long run.
What a long-term approach would look like
If Horcoff chooses the long-term path that leads him to taking on futures in these trades, it will be a tougher one, but he could earn the trust of the fan base quite quickly if he's savvy enough. The long-term direction would add potential building blocks that could take the Red Wings to heights they could not reach during their current iteration. That said, this direction could lead him to a possible conflict with ownership that could leave him in a different organization in six months' time.
The long term route for Shawn Horcoff is about taking swings more than anything else. This path is dependent on Horcoff’s belief in the ceiling of the trio of Michael Misa, Alexander Zharovsky and LJ Mooney. If those three players hit their ceiling, it will drastically change the long term outlook of the franchise for years to come. Misa has the potential to be a bona fide first line center. Zharovsky and Mooney at their peak could be massive pieces for a top-six in need of offense.
This is what the long-term lineup could look like in the near future:
Debrincat - Finnie - Arvidsson
Brandsegg-Nygard - Misa - Raymond
Kolesar - Copp - Danielson
Mazur - Compher - Rasmussen
Guhle - Seider
Al. Johansson - Faulk
Chiarot - An. Johansson
The long term option puts a lot of “if” into the equation for a general manager on an interim tag. What if Misa tops out as a second line center? What happens if Zharovsky is a middle 6 winger? What if Mooney can not overcome his small stature? While this is downplaying all of their potentials and taking a worse case scenario, it's still a potential reality that could happen.
I don’t envy Horcoff or the situation he finds himself in now, but this is where he is and his decision is going to have lasting ramifications to the Detroit Red Wings for years to come.
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