The Detroit Red Wings are America's most successful NHL franchise, so something feels right when they're leading the division at what's very nearly the season's halfway mark. But the Wings are a first-place team with a couple of caveats.
For one, they're sitting at a negative goal differential, one of just two top-three teams in the Eastern Conference to own such a mark. The other team? Their Original Six and current division rival, the Montreal Canadiens.
That said, it doesn't mean the Wings are getting lucky in games or having a few pucks bounce their way. It also doesn't mean they don't deserve to sit atop the Atlantic. Even if a team like the Tampa Bay Lightning has a plus-25 differential, which is by far the best in the Eastern Conference.
Instead, the Wings are just winning close games. They're performing well in the clutch, and that should terrify opponents. How well have they fared in one-goal matchups? Oh, you won't believe this.
Detroit Red Wings are almost guaranteed to beat opponents in one-goal games
Dave Hogg of NHL.com drove the point home, writing that "The Red Wings are 5-1 in overtime this season and 13-2-3 in one-goal games."
Those are sparkling numbers, and they show us that when the Wings manage to keep the game close, a win or at least a shootout loss is on the radar. It also explains the minus-4 goal differential: Chances are, you're going to have one when you've played in 40 games this season, yet 18, or nearly 50 percent of them, had a single goal decide them.
That's epic, and if the Wings keep this up, there's no way they're disappointing us in March and missing the playoffs. They need to stay healthy and keep playing their brand of hockey that keeps a lot of games close. But at midseason, if you want more optimism, keeping opponents within striking distance has become their identity.
Red Wings have been keeping these games close against good hockey teams
Of their 13 wins in one-goal games, six have come against opponents who are currently occupying a playoff spot. And 12 are against opponents who have at least a 0.500 point percentage. Remarkable, given how tough the Eastern Conference is, where not a single team has a point percentage under 0.500.
This means you can't count out the Wings if they manage to pull within a goal late in games. They play their best hockey when they're within striking distance of a win, and if they tie things up as they did in the third period in Sunday night's overtime win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, they're going into the extra period almost guaranteed to skate away with the W.
The challenge? Detroit must keep this up during the most important time of the year, when the playoff race reaches its boiling point come March and April. They still have a couple of months to stay consistent here. If and when they do, opponents better hope they have a multi-goal lead late in games. If not, the Wings might just make them pay.