I'll be the first to admit it: I was wrong about William Wallinder.
Before the start of the season, I thought the Detroit Red Wings would wind up waiving the rookie defenseman. Stellar play from Anton Johansson and Axel Sandin-Pellikka implied that Wallinder would be an unfortunate victim of the waiver wire.
Since then, he's (mostly) proven the doubters wrong.
Through nine games, the 2020 second round pick has two goals and two assists for four points. He plays an average of 15:29 a night on the second pairing alongside Justin Faulk, where the two have combined for an impressive 64.9% expected goals, per Moneypuck. Wallinder and Faulk's pairing hold the second-highest expected goals percentage among defensive pairings, just a few percentage points behind Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley of the Dallas Stars.
Additionally, the Wallinder-Faulk pairing lead the NHL in expected goals at even-strength and 5v5.
It's safe to say Wallinder is settling in as an NHLer. But is this sort of production sustainable?
Wallinder still learning as a rookie
The most important thing to remember is that Wallinder is still a rookie. Growing pains are certainly inevitable. He's had a few rough plays, with an ugly giveaway against the San Jose Sharks headlining the mistakes. But, with that said, he's improving with each passing game. His minutes seem to reflect this, as well.
Here's what his deployment has looked like over the last five games:
Game | ATOI |
|---|---|
Oct. 22 (vs. VAN) | 13:34 |
Oct. 24 (vs. CGY) | 13:22 |
Oct. 26 (vs. EDM) | 17:51 |
Oct. 29 (vs. CHI) | 17:27 |
Oct. 31 (vs. STL) | 20:08 |
Wallinder's game against the St. Louis Blues was the most average time on ice he's garnered in a game thus far. It's clear that, the more he plays, the more head coach Todd McLellan is trusting him with tougher assignments.
Last season, Justin Faulk and Ben Chiarot had among the worst expected goals percentages in the NHL among defensive pairings. This time around, Faulk finally has a partner able to play to his strengths. If the numbers tell us anything, it's that Faulk plays better with Wallinder as his partner than he has with any other partner on the Red Wings thus far.
The real test will come if (or when) Faulk is traded.
It's sink or swim for William Wallinder
Sooner or later, Justin Faulk will either hit free agency or find himself traded to another team. When that time comes, the Red Wings will have a much better idea of what they have on their hands with Wallinder. Since we haven't seen him moved around much in the lineup, it's hard to tell if he's been sheltered by Faulk or if he truly is this good analytically.
Eventually, Wallinder will have free rein on the second pair.
Who the Red Wings pair him with is anyone's guess, but, if Detroit sees Axel Sandin-Pellikka as a future member of the top-four, Wallinder might be just the candidate to partner with him.
The Red Wings have a lot of difficult decisions to make over the coming weeks. One of them, eventually, will have to be the fate of Faulk. While it's not a top priority right now, interim GM Shawn Horcoff needs to monitor Wallinder's progress as the season rolls on.
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