Point: Pettersson’s price tag is enormous for that production
Even with a rising salary cap, paying $11.6 million in cap space per year for second-line caliber production is a problem. There’s no way around that argument. If Pettersson has regressed permanently to what he’s done the last two years, that is essentially paying two Andrew Copp’s for only slightly better production. Copp has 33 points in 60 games compared to Pettersson’s 35 in 51 games.
While it is likely that Vancouver will have to eat salary in any deal of Pettersson, let’s assume that it is roughly $3 million to get his cap hit more in line with the trio of Larkin, Raymond and Seider. Detroit is adding a nearly $9 million player to the lineup at a time where they need to give a fairly lucrative extension to Simon Edvinsson this summer. They'll also have to make commitments to Alex DeBrincat and Marco Kasper next season. Edvinsson will likely command at least $7 million in his next deal, while DeBrincat is going to be another $8 million player.
If the Red Wings have to let DeBrincat leave while watching Pettersson remain stuck as more of a complementary player at that price point, Detroit could end up stuck in neutral yet again.
Counterpoint: Detroit won’t find Elias Pettersson-caliber talent in free agency
Ignoring the dollar figure, let’s just focus on the player and the track record in a vacuum. Elias Pettersson is a four-time All-Star, a Calder Trophy winner and a four-time 30-goal scorer who has put up at least 66 points five times in his first six seasons. Despite having eight seasons under his belt, he still a relatively young at 27. His contract, while long, takes him through his age 33 season.
Players with this track record of production and talent do not generally reach free agency. Free agency generally gives you supporting cast players you have to overpay to get to join a team instead of needle movers. If all it took to get Pettersson were a first round pick, Nate Danielson and some secondary prospects or additional non-first round picks, that is a deal worth making to see what can happen.
With Dylan Larkin already in the fold and locked up until 2031, Detroit gets a shot at the type of down the middle depth that forms the backbone of Stanley Cup contenders. These two may not be Yzerman and Sergei Fedorov, or even Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, but they are by far the best bet for that type of production they have had since those pairings aged out.