If there's one thing Detroit Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman loves, it's Michigan-born players.
Andrew Copp, Carter Mazur and Alex DeBrincat have joined Dylan Larkin as the team's resident Michiganders since Steve Yzerman took over. Even former Yzerman-era Red Wings like Jeff Petry, Tyler Motte, Jordan Oeseterle, Danny DeKeyser, Luke Glendening, Justin Abdelkader and Luke Witkowski can trace their origins back to the Mitten State.
This offseason, another Michigander will make his way to the free agent market -- Rochester-born Jacob Trouba. The Anaheim Ducks defenseman finished the season off with 10 goals and 35 points in 81 games, managing 22:50 in average ice time.
If Steve Yzerman has any long-term ambitions for this roster, he should avoid Jacob Trouba at all costs.
Why the Red Wings need to avoid Jacob Trouba
Now, on paper, Trouba fits the prototypical mold of an Yzerman defenseman. He's big, he hits hard and he's from Michigan. It seems like a no-brainer to add him to the roster. Once you peel back the surface layers, however, things become more complex.
Trouba is 32 years old and will be 33 by February of 2027. If AFP Analytics' contract predictions are worth their salt, Trouba's deal will come in around $6.4M a season for the next four years. Trouba was third on the Ducks in hits with 143 on the season, but his numbers have begun a steady decline over the last five seasons.
Asking Trouba to continue playing at the hard-hitting, high-energy rate he has most of his career will be a tall ask late into his 30s. That isn't even accounting for his production, which has begun its downswing as he's continued to grow older.
At this point in the Red Wings' rebuild, it just doesn't make sense to bring Trouba on for several years.
Red Wings already have a Trouba-caliber defenseman
The biggest reason the Red Wings don't need Trouba is because they already have a Jacob Trouba. His name is Ben Chiarot.
Like Trouba, Chiarot is an older, heavy-hitting defenseman that often makes mistakes in his own zone. Having not just one, but two Chiarots, could spell disaster defensively for this team. Additionally, there isn't really a spot for Trouba on this roster. The right-shot defenseman, if signed, would likely slot in at Justin Faulk's position, but all that would do is push Faulk down the lineup.
Justin Faulk makes $6.5M for the next year. If either he or Trouba play on the bottom pairing, that is, at its best, poor roster and asset management. The Chiarot-Faulk pairing was already abysmal analytically. A Chiarot-Trouba pairing would almost certainly break any advanced analytics model.
To top it all off, signing Trouba would all but block Axel Sandin-Pellikka and all younger defensemen from ever emerging on the roster.
Ask yourself: what does a bottom-four defensive makeup of Ben Chiarot (35 years old), Justin Faulk (34 years old), Jacob Trouba (32 years old) and Albert Johansson (25 years old) bring to the table?
The only way that bottom-four would be remotely effective is if Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson played 55 minutes a night.
It's safe to say that signing Trouba would be nothing short of disastrous for the Red Wings.
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