Tonight, the 2026 NHL Entry Draft Lottery determines who wins the Gavin McKenna Sweepstakes. The Detroit Red Wings, despite not owning their first round pick, still have their eyes on the lottery, though. That's because their 2026 first round pick (the one used to acquire Justin Faulk) is unprotected.
No team has had worse lottery luck in the last 30 years than the Detroit Red Wings. From missing out on the first overall pick in 2020 to dropping out of a top-four spot in 2019, every year seems to impart more pain upon Hockeytown and its fans.
This year is no different. While the Red Wings' pick is unable to win the first overall pick, the St. Louis Blues still have a 0.5% chance of picking in the top-three with Detroit's first rounder. How cruel would it be to miss out on the lottery all these years only to see that pick handed over to another team?
Then again, is this even something worth worrying about?
Red Wings should focus on road ahead
Per Tankathon, the Red Wings' pick is projected to be somewhere in the 15th-16th overall territory. At that point in the draft, teams are looking at players like Elton Hermansson and Nikita Klepov. While both players may wind up being solid NHL contributors down the stretch, it's hard to imagine they'll be seeing NHL ice anytime soon.
Had the Red Wings stood pat and kept their pick, they'd likely acquire a solid middle-six winger in the draft. The thing is, the Red Wings already have more than their fair share of middle-sixers in the system. Sure, you could propose a hypothetical trade with this pick, but, as the old saying goes, it takes two to tango. There's no guarantee anyone would want that pick, much less the prospect Yzerman would've decided to draft.
The best thing the Red Wings can do at this point is focus on the road ahead. Whether or not they'd move up with the 0.5% chance the pick moves doesn't matter. What matters is what the Red Wings do from here.
A full season of Justin Faulk benefits the Red Wings more
If we're just looking at brass tacks here, Justin Faulk benefits the Red Wings more right now than a middle-sixer. If the past is any precedent, it would likely be anywhere from two to three years before the draft pick sees ice time. Faulk, on the other hand, is a tried-and-true second-pairing defenseman and is ready now. He's shown he's got what it takes to steady the defense.
Faulk ended last season with 16 goals and 24 assists for 40 points in 78 games. Eight of those points came in 27 games with the Red Wings. A full season of Faulk will be good for the Red Wings, allowing the team to play a more consistent brand of hockey. It'll take the pressure off younger players like Axel Sandin-Pellikka, who should be a more regular player on the roster in 2026-27.
All in all, it doesn't matter where the Blues pick tonight. The Red Wings have made their decision and should focus on the path ahead rather than ruminate on what could have been.
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