Ranking Detroit Red Wings defense (mailbag part 1)
The Detroit Red Wings have made some changes, so how do they rank amongst the rest of the NHL?
In our mailbag we received this terrific question:
Where would you rank the wing’s D-corp among the other 31 team’s?
— cameron nagle (@cnagle91) July 26, 2024
A pressing question on everyone’s mind: defense, defense, defense.
Considering the Detroit Red Wings gave away goals last season like they were Santa Claus on Christmas Eve night, I can see why it’s a pressing matter amongst fans.
Part of the issues lie with more than just the defensive core, but it’s vital to the foundation of any team who dreams of making an impact in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. We’ve seen offensive powerhouse teams shut down every playoff round, so it’s safe to assume that defense is still paramount. (A hot goalie can be just as important, as well, but this is a discussion for another time.)
Out scoring mistakes is not a recipe for success in the playoffs.
How do the Detroit Red Wings rank amongst the other teams in the National Hockey League (NHL)?
Determining a team’s defensive makeup is a variety of factors:
Systems
How is a team supposed to end opposing cycles, get the puck, and transition it out of their own zone?
There are different ways teams setup in each zone, some might let other teams have all the space in the world to make sure the middle is completely covered—just as an example. This is a great option for teams who might not be the fleetest of foot or have the most talent, as practically everyone knows how to block a shot and get into a shooting lane…whether there’s a will to do so is the bigger question.
Personnel
Part of the system, where do the players on the team position themselves. Are the forwards playing more deep in the zone, midway up in the zone, closer to the neutral zone? Is it a mix? Does it rotate? Or are guys staying in one area, for the most part, on the ice?
Statistics
People seem to really like statistics. I can see the value in that it can help support or dismiss perspectives. Sometimes they can help identify a problem that was known or unknown. Or maybe it could help identify a root cause of something, at points.
These numbers aren’t the end all be all. They are just part of making an informed opinion.
In this exercise, I’m focusing on only a few of team statistics. There are many others that could be useful, but these are the ones I’ve chosen to focus on as I’ve found them useful in the past.
To learn more about ice hockey statistics, Natural Stat Trick is a great resource.
Systems, or what's left of them
Thinking back to the 2023-24 season, I remember significant highs and devastating lows.
When I think back to their process, the foundations of a system were there midway through the season. Players came together pretty well, but then things fell apart.
Namely, when their captain was out for periods of time, the Detroit Red Wings were a different team. Regardless of who is to blame, it was a huge issue for the team.
Shambles of the system that once danced across the ice dissipated without a trace every second Dylan Larkin was out and the team didn’t recover.
More than Larkin missing time played a factor in the performance (other players faced injuries and illness with a player even spending time in the hospital before a game due to the illness going around), as did overall personnel.
We knew going into the season to not have lofty expectations.
Of course, we have the booing committee who think the rebuild’s expiration date is long gone and we are now left with the sad, sour milk of a general manager in Steve Yzerman.
Are we at the end of the rebuilding tunnel?
Purtineer (as my mom and granny would say), but there’s a bit of road to go.
Based on the systems alone, I’m hesitant to say the group will improve much in the upcoming season. Most of the players will return. Can head coach Derek Lalonde and his crew get the players to buy into his system?
Possibly the illness took a hold, but the Jake Walman prompt exit makes me think more things were going on behind the scenes and things are a bit rocky with the players and the coach. For a guy touted as a players coach, let’s hope he can pull some charm out of somewhere and get everyone on his page again. If not, things will be pretty bumpy, pretty quickly.
A huge opportunity on defense for the Detroit Red Wings wasn’t only about personnel on defense. I understand that a huge factor in defending is literally the defense, but goaltenders, forwards, and communication were questionable at times last season.
When we were stuck in our end for minutes on end, miscues where we didn’t know where the puck was let alone what we wanted to do with it if the puck chose us to play it, or took a moment to communicate with our teammate, things went south faster than my snowbird parents going to Florida after Thanksgiving.
Hopefully these aspects of the Detroit Red Wings will improve, but I want to leave assessment of the goalies and forward groups for next season for a different article. They were things that I wanted to point out for my own awareness when trying to rank the Detroit Red Wings defense.
Invasion of the Swedes? (bring it on)
Personnel on defense is still important.
As for personnel, the Detroit Red Wings have revamped their roster. It’s not quite the turnover that we have seen in seasons past, but the defense core is getting a shake up.
Ben Chiarot (yeah, I get he was better last season, still not my favorite)
Justin Holl (oh dear, seems like a nice guy but he gets a bit too exciting for my taste on the ice)
Olli Määttä (suck it Määttä traders)
Jeff Petry (seems like a nice dude, again not my favorite but all good)
Moritz Seider (does he even go here anymore?)
Newbies (Hooked on a feeling, are we?):
Erik Gustafsson (another Swede, let’s gooo)
Simon Edvinsson (well, kind of new)
William Lagesson (see Gustafsson)
Albert Johansson (leader of the sassy Swedes)
Out:
Jake Walman (farewell to a hero)
Shayne Gostisbehere (get that dough and term, just not from our team)
There’s a lot to unpack, but focusing on the most important factors, in my opinion, Yzerman didn’t go on a spending frenzy this free agency. It’s a nice change of pace.
While it looks like too many names for Edvinsson and Johansson to make a push, there seems to be more flexibility.
Gustafsson comes in to fill the hole left by Gostisbehere, but he isn’t an exact match. If he’s not blowing things out of the water on the power play (or if Seider takes a step back on the power play), Edvinsson would be a fantastic candidate to try on the point. The flexibility of being able to pull back guys and have the depth of an Edvinsson changes things a bit, as there weren’t many defense options to fill in on the power play units last season.
Lagesson and Johansson are likely battling for the seventh spot on defense, but it’s possible (even likely, in my opinion) that Johansson could bump a guy like Holl or Petry. Although Johansson is a left-handed shooting defenseman, he’s played on the right side in his career with some regularity.
At points last season, Johansosn and Edvinsson were a formidable pairing. Johnsson seemed to pick apart the offensive zone cycles of the opponents and transition up to Edvinsson. In turn, Edvinsson would jump start the rush, whether through a pass or carrying the puck up himself.
As the season went along, a few injuries and call ups later the pair wasn’t as successful. However, it speaks to Johansson’s ability to play high up (first pairing minutes in the American Hockey League (AHL)) in a professional hockey league.
Of course, it’s not the National Hockey League (NHL). For those wondering, I think there’s about a 0.0000001% chance Edvinsson and Johansson see ice time together this upcoming season (or really any time in the future with Lalonde as the coach).
He likes to put veterans with the young players, which makes sense.
I think a better defensive pair for a guy like Johansson would be Määttä.
The NHL will have a steep learning curve that Johansson is built to thrive in, but it will take time to adjust. Having a reliable, steady, calm presence like Määttä will make a world of difference for Johansson.
Then, with Edvinsson I know that everyone wants to see him play with Seider as a top pair defenseman.
Let’s give the people what they want, I could see a world where they play together opening night as a pair. While it’s not likely, as it would be too much fun, it’s still more than possible.
Both players have stated they want to play together. I don’t take it as just lip service or an anecdote. When people want to be around each other, it creates a positive environment in anything that they’re doing.
Also, their games might be complimentary. Edvinsson is an impeccable skater who thinks the game differently from most players. He can also do things that nobody else can do on the ice. His overall game is sound, offensively and defensively, and really lacks nothing talent and sill wise.
The biggest opportunities for Edvinsson include his confidence, consistency, and applying himself more often than not.
Seider is a great hype man. His game is also well-rounded. Although his skating and vision for the game may not be on par with Edvinsson, his experience and hunger drives him to soaring heights.
This hungry side of Seider could help Edvinsson channel his own game, as sometimes he goes out to lunch or seems to focus on things that take away from his game.
Edvinsson seems to feed off of the energy of others, mirroring theirs and I think Seider could be a great foil for Edvinsson.
They both can get pretty mean and nasty too. The Detroit Red Wings could use a bit more mean and nasty, especially on the top pairing.
The only question is, would Lalonde be willing to put a rookie defenseman on the top pair? I would hope so, if Edvinsson proves he’s earned it, then he should get the spot.
If not, he’s likely on the second pair with Petry. Chiarot or Gustafsson is probably on the top pair with Seider.
Arguably, I think this second scenario isn’t as fun. While making the second pairing a bit stronger with Edvinsson, it leaves the top pair weaker and Seider to do the heavy lifting again. I’m not sure it would do the team many favors.
My dark horse, hot take: don’t sleep on Shai Buium.
He’s likely bound for a year playing for the Grand Rapids Griffins. Yzerman made it clear with Marco Kasper, Simon Edvinsson, and many more that he is not rushing prospects. It seems like a stop in Grand Rapids, Michigan, is inevitable for everyone not named Lucas Raymond (and likely Axel Sandin-Pellikka).
However, if there’s anyone on defense who makes a surprise appearance in the Detroit Red Wings lineup, my money would be on Buium.
He’s the most intriguing prospect in the Detroit Red Wings system.
After spending three seasons playing for the Denver Pioneers, winning two championships, he’s proved that he’s not a passenger or a depth piece.
Buium is a two-way defenseman with surprising pops of offense. His skating is effective, even if it’s not as smooth as the Swedes, and his positioning is good. Very smart player with excellent vision, Buium will become a fan favorite.
He’s played in all situations and been successful all over the ice. Leading his team in the regular season with a +33, he appeared in 43 games while scoring 7 goals and 29 helpers.
I’m not sure where he’s spending the summer, but I’m hoping he gets some more time with Niklas Kronwall.
Forgot to mention, Buium can dish some great hits, like his development coach (not to the same degree, of course, or as often).
Overall, I think the personnel will seem to have regressed on paper. I think this regression won’t last long, though, if the young players are given real chances to play meaningful roles with impactful minutes.
They might take a handful of games to adjust, but they have a high potential to perform better this upcoming season than the previous roster performed in 2023-24.
Numbers, numbers, numbers
Expected Goals Against Percentage (xGF%):
Basically, how likely is a team to surrender a goal?
High Danger Chances Against (HDCA):
Not all goals are created equal, but historically, certain spots (such as the slot) have a higher percentage of leading to goals than outside certain areas. For high danger goals against percentage, it begs the question, how likely is a team expected to surrender a goal from a high danger area of the ice?
Corsi For Percentage (CF%):
Shot attempts for a team in a game outside of the shootout.
To learn more about ice hockey statistics, Natural Stat Trick is a great resource.
Of all the statistics, the Detroit Red Wings finished in the bottom-five in xGF% and CF%--meaning they were one of the worst teams in those categories. In terms of HDCA, they were middle of the pack.
In short, while they gave up a lot of chances and had a high likelihood of giving up goals, they weren’t giving up crazy high danger chances.
Projecting to the next season is tough, but it’s likely to be a step up in terms of xGF% and CF% (or it better be if Lalonde wants to keep his job). On the other hand, I don’t see the high danger chances against changing drastically either way.
For the upcoming season, I think I would rank the NHL teams as follows (worst to best):
31 - Chicago Blackhawks (gotta keep them down here when I can justify it)
30 - San Jose Sharks (love their newly acquired Detroit Red Wings players)
29 - Columbus Blue Jackets (hmmm)
28 - Anaheim Ducks (little ball of hate has some work to do)
27 - St. Louis Blues (such a pity)
26 - Montreal Canadiens (no explanation needed)
25 - Utah Hockey Club (they’ll be on the up and up)
24 - Ottawa Senators (lol)
23 - Calgary Flames (think this is a bit high for them, but don’t feel like re-numbering)
22 - Buffalo Sabres (probably outperforms this slot)
21 - Washington Capitals (get some goals, Ovi!)
20 - New York Rangers (holy goalie)
19 - Philadelphia Flyers (not buying in quite yet)
18 - Boston Bruins (are they done yet?)
17 - Pittsburgh Penguins (ew)
16 - Detroit Red Wings
15 - New York Islanders (they still go here?)
14 - Winnipeg Jets (have they gotten an airport, yet?)
13 - New Jersey Devils (might be a bit high)
12 - Tampa Bay Lightning (the cliff is coming)
11 - Minnesota Wild (define meh, sorry Kaprizov)
10 - Vegas Golden Knights (sure they find another cap circumvention)
9 - Seattle Kraken (coolest jersey colors in the NHL)
8 - Los Angeles Kings (always pulling for LA)
7 - Vancouver Canucks (EP40, Quinn Hughes, need I say more?)
6 - Carolina Hurricanes (have they reached a bazillion shots on net yet?)
5 - Edmonton Oilers (this might be a bit rich of a ranking, but too late to go back now)
4 - Nashville Predators (annoyed at how good they’ll be)
3 - Florida Panthers (*no repeat* *no repeat* *no repeat*)
2 - Colorado Avalanche (still think they have one of the best rosters)
1 - Dallas Stars (think it’s finally their year, Nill’s been patiently building)
What do you think, where would you rank the Detroit Red Wings defense amongst the other teams?
Next. aug 1. Guess who’s back? The Detroit Red Wings, Steve Yzerman is creating a monster. Part 2. dark
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