A deep dive into Moritz Seider and what he means to the Detroit Red Wings

Moritz Seider's good, but how good can be for the Detroit Red Wings?

The biggest questions at this point include how good is Seider? Has he reached most of his potential? How much room does he have left to grow? Is it a matter of waiting—similar to what we saw with the current captain of the Red Wings in Dylan Larkin where he needs more of a supporting cast? Is he already an elite star player in the league?

The answers to these questions vary. 

Red Wings fans, myself included, seem to overvalue their players (I mean, I don’t know of any fanbases that don’t overvalue their players) while objecting to criticisms thrown their team’s way—especially towards the team's top players.

A team like the Red Wings in a city like Detroit, Michigan, makes it an even more delicate situation. 

Detroit, Michigan is underrated in every sense of the word. The prototypical underdog city that very few individuals appreciate outside of Michigan itself. The Chrysler 200 Super Bowl Commercial from 2011 sums this concept up pretty nicely:

Seider’s play makes it easy to root for Seider and defend him against anyone who sees him as less than a star player. The reasons fans might take it a step further and have an almost possessive quality over Seider might stem from people underestimating him in the same ways of Detroit. In many ways, Seider embodies the people of Detroit itself.

This season, Seider isn’t getting much love from people outside of the Red Wings fandom. 

Many stats show his numbers as poor with some nights showing that he was the worst on the team as depicted below:

Seider’s numbers in widely accepted statistics don’t look great either. The fact that he doesn’t look great in those statistics doesn’t do a disservice to Seider. Furthermore, they don’t invalidate the statistics. It serves as a good reality check for Red Wings fans.

His Corsi for percentage (CF%), or the “percentage of total Corsi while that player is on the ice for that player's team. CF*100/(CF+CA), and goals for percentage (GF%), or the player's percentage of total Goals while that player is on the ice that are for that player's team. GF*100/(GF+GA), are at a career low per NaturalStatTrick.com. 

I’ve seen a lot of reactions to numbers on social media rejecting those statistics because it makes Seider appear less than the star we all know he is for the Red Wings.

Stats don't always paint the whole picture.

While there are aspects of the statistics that accurately describe Seider’s game from my viewing, there are aspects that aren’t accounted for in Seider’s game. 

As an example, Seider held Connor McDavid to a two-point game on January 11, 2024. Also, he held his countryman, Leon Draisaitl, off the scoresheet entirely. It may have been an overtime loss for Detroit, but was a big game for Seider.

From a Red Wings fan perspective, Seider performed excellently. Whenever McDavid entered the Red Wings’ zone, he faced a brick wall that bit back every shift. Much like Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs, illustrated in this video, McDavid seemed frustrated as not a lot went his way with Seider on the ice.

At the same time, Seider didn’t drive play. He was effective with being reactionary. I could see non-Red Wings’ fans having a different reaction to this style of play. 

What seems to be lost on those fans is that Seider played over 25 minutes, the most on either team. More often than not those shifts were against McDavid, who logged over 23 minutes in the game. 

I can’t fathom asking Seider for more effort, skill, or productivity in a game against McDavid, but I suppose I understand an outsider’s mentality in that sense. 

Certain stats reflect Seider positively with some people, like Byron Bader, getting Seider’s impact:

Then, there is the Grind Line Podcast that points out:

In reality, statistics aren’t everything and can’t tell the whole story. 

As important as the statistic is, things like how it’s derived, the things it accounts for, the things it doesn’t account for, definition of its measurements, any possible variables, and so on. Practically anyone can create a stat to support their claims, but it doesn’t make that stat effective or helpful.

Moritz Seiders intangibles hold some weight with the Detroit Red Wings

Some of Seider’s best qualities are intangibles that aren’t quantifiable and aren’t appreciated until someone like Seider is on their team.

In the context the Red Wings and Seider, the CF% and GF% doesn’t account for the level of competition. Regularly, Seider plays the second or third-highest minutes on the team. For reference, Seider has played 1034:46 minutes, which is 156:27 minutes higher than the team's second-highest (Ben Chiarot with 878:19 time on ice.) For anyone wondering, Ben Chiarot has recorded the highest time on ice for those wondering with 749:25. (He’s been great, all things considered, but that topic is for another time and place.)

Seider’s minutes aren’t easy minutes. As with the game against the Oilers, the Red Wings regularly put Seider against the highest level of competition. He gets very few, if any, shifts against lesser competition. Also, Seider doesn’t get many offensive zone shift starts. For example, against the Oilers, Seider started zero times in the offensive zone, once in the neutral zone, and five times in the defensive zone. Chiarot and Jake Walman weren’t far behind, with four shift starts in the defensive zone. This means that not only does Seider face stiffer competition, but he does not start in a favorable zone either. 

Red Wings’ head coach Derek Lalonde is asking a lot of Seider. Maybe it’s justified and will make Seider better in the long run, as Seider has held his head above water this season. However, it may be a bit much at times. 

Changing things up every so often might help, but then we have to think of who takes Seider’s spot in the defensive zone or who has to face McDavid. These thoughts alone scare me as I don’t know who would be the best candidate.

These factors aside, there are aspects of Seider’s game that need to improve. Seider plays much more reactionary than proactively. From the neutral zone to the offensive zone, Seider plays with confidence and seems to have genuine fun. He plays with an edge in the defensive zone, but appears all business. If Seider could bring some of that swag from the neutral and offensive zone. 

Seider is wise enough to not make foolish plays, avoiding a poke and hope mentality. Rarely do I see Seider cheat for anything in any zone and I would expect this trend to continue regardless of how he plays in the defensive zone.

Now, I hear some fans defending Seider from this perspective. I appreciate your love of Seider and dedication to him. I understand that you believe that Seider is perfect. Wish I could have that same mentality, but I see more potential in Seider to unlock.

This opportunity should make it all the more exciting for Red Wings’ fans as they know how much effort Seider puts in on a nightly basis. We see his drive to be the best he can be for his team. To realize there is higher, untapped potential is tantalizing.

My favorite quality of Seider is his learning ability. I joked many times that Seider is a super-human computer and not an actual human. The way he just instantly learns from a mistake is incredible. Very few times have I witnessed Seider make the same mistake twice in his career since joining the Red Wings organization.

As defensemen join the Red Wings in Detroit, they should help alleviate some hard minutes from Seider and lessen his overall workload. In doing so, he should be better rested and face lesser competition at times to have more fun.

Detroit Red Wings may have more help arriving for Moritz Seider in the defense core.

A prospect like Antti Tuomisto may help in the not-so-distant future along with Axel Sandin-Pellikka in the distant future, and players like Shayne Gostisbehere help alleviate some minutes from Seider. However, Seider will likely earn his paycheck playing against the stiffest competition with the highest amount of time on ice. In turn, this means Seider must learn to dictate the game on his terms, not anyone else’s. In my opinion, he’s well on his way. Teams intentionally avoid Seider on the ice whenever possible, as they know he’s one of the most demanding customers. Doing so pressures his defensive partner a bit more than in previous seasons, but it speaks volumes about Seider’s play.

Walman is still a fun, effective player. Throughout the season, he has faced injuries that seemed to hamper his consistency and effectiveness this season. It is completely understandable. As he reaclimates and is able to play regular minutes over the next stretch of games, his overall play should improve. With his injury and illness time, Seider has had different defensive partners. In his career, Seider seems to play his best when he has a consistent defensive partner like Walman or Éric Gélinas, whom he was paired with in Rögle BK of the Swedish Hockey League (SHL). Even more impressively, Seider seems to bring out the best qualities in his consistent defensive partners. Gélinas even earned a contract with the Chicago Wolves of the American Hockey League (AHL), associated at the time with the Carolina Hurricanes, after spending a season paired with Seider.

Although it’s not likely in the future, having a consistent defensive partner like Simon Edvinsson, or a possible candidate in Albert Johansson, William Wallinder, or Shai Buium could help Seider’s overall game and controlling play as teams may not be able to choose a less consistent defensive partner. Having options on the left side is a huge asset, as Seider’s defensive partner seems as important as Edvinsson’s. Remembering when we watched Chiarot and Seider on a defensive pair, I cringe. It was some of the most difficult hockey to watch. So much blame rested on Chiarot’s shoulders, whether right or wrong, I think it’s fair to reflect back and note that blame was shared. 

Sometimes, players just don’t have the chemistry or effective communication, even if a defensive pairing looks perfect on paper.

It’s possible this is another opportunity for Seider to learn from, finding ways to work with a defensive partner even if it’s not his preference and adjusting to give the pairing the best chance to succeed.

These opportunities aside, I think Seider is already an NHL star. Seider is incredible regardless of anyone’s advanced analytics or hockey cards. For Red Wings fans, it’s blatantly obvious, but I can see the confusion for any outsider reviewing Seider’s game. It’s difficult to truly appreciate his gifts unless he’s part of your team.

If you get the time, IceHockeyGIFs posted a masterpiece of over 30 minutes that portrays Seider’s journey so far: 

Seider’s another reason Red Wings fans are so lucky. We know how special Seider is before the rest of the league catches up if they ever do. (Probably not, given the lack of love for Nicklas Lidström.)