Once the NHL returns from the Winter Olympics in Milan, Italy, it will be the final stretch of the regular season. There's the March 6 trade deadline, and teams in the playoff hunt seeking to clinch one of the 16 spots to compete for the Stanley Cup in April.
In the remaining 20-plus games for each team, players have a chance to make their case to win individual awards. The Norris Trophy is awarded to the best defenseman with all-around ability in each season. Since the start of the campaign, Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche has been the favorite to win the award. He not only plays well defensively, but he is part of Colorado's scoring juggernaut. But there is one player who should be making the competition for this award much more interesting purely on defensive statistics. That is Moritz Seider of the Detroit Red Wings.
Moritz Seider's defensive stats alone are giving Cale Makar serious competition in Norris Trophy race
The Norris Trophy may be given to the best defenseman, but it doesn't mean it's handed to the player who has the best defensive metrics. For example, Erik Karlsson won the Norris Trophy back in the 2022-23 season when he was with the San Jose Sharks despite having bad defensive metrics such as owning a -26 plus/minus ratio and being on the ice for 126 even-strength goals. Yet he won it due in part to having a 101-point season.
Let's stress by saying that Makar is nowhere near the Karlsson territory. He's a really good defenseman. The thing is, Seider is playing better defensively.
Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic discussed the Norris Trophy race (subscription required), and said that if the award were chosen exclusively for defense, then Seider should be the winner.
"His point pace may have slowed down a touch (seven points in his last 15), but Seider’s elite defense is still the draw here," writes Luszczyszyn. "Seider’s 57.7 percent xG rate leads the top candidates, a direct result of allowing just 2.22 expected goals against per 60, an impressive mark given his usage. Seider’s relative impact at five-on-five is among the highest in the league. Many always clamor for a defensive defenseman to get more Norris consideration; in the analytics era there’s never been a better choice than Seider. That he still ranks second in total value with defense being his primary driver is unheard-of."
The statistics don't lie for Seider. Luszczyszyn listed each player's net rating in terms of offensive and defensive ratings. Seider has a net rating of +15.7 between his insane +9.4 defensive rating and a +6.3 offensive rating. The Red Wings defender is second in net rating behind Makar, and it's not by a wide margin. Makar has a +11.6 offensive rating and a +4.5 defensive rating for a net rating of +16.0.
On offense, Seider has seven goals and 31 assists for 38 points through 58 games. Makar, meanwhile, has 15 goals and 42 assists for 57 points through 55 games. If Seider didn't cool off in terms of offensive production as of late, one has to imagine the competition between him and Makar would be even closer.
As Luszczyszyn says, the analytics back Seider as a player who could feasibly win the Norris Trophy solely on defensive metrics. The only issues is, Makar is part of a Colorado team that looks like the far and ahead favorites to win the Stanley Cup, and is a point a game player as a defender. There's still 20-plus games remaining for both players after the Olympics to solidify their cases. Regardless of the end result, Red Wings fans can take solace in knowing they have one of the top defenders in the country and finally found their long term answer since Niklas Lidstrom's retirement.