The Detroit Red Wings don’t need to squint to see a playoff path anymore; they just need to keep it from slipping away in the month of March, as it has in each of the last couple of seasons.
On Sunday afternoon, Red Wings head coach Todd McLellan offered the kind of injury update fans have been waiting for on captain Dylan Larkin. Larkin has been skating with the club at practice, but he hasn’t been taking line rushes, the telltale sign that a full return isn’t imminent yet. Still, McLellan said Larkin is getting closer, and that his status should soon shift from week-to-week to day-to-day.
That timing matters because Detroit currently sits just outside the Eastern Conference’s final wild-card spot at 38–24–8—84 points through 70 games. The postseason benchmark I keep coming back to is 95 points. For the Red Wings, that is a very achievable target. With 84 already banked, Detroit needs 11 more points over its final 12 games. To put it simply: if they play roughly .500 hockey down the stretch, and the Red Wings should be able to finally punch their ticket to the postseason.
Not to point to the obvious, but getting Larkin back sooner rather than later can add real value. It should feel like a big-time trade deadline addition. The Red Wings have been busy scratching and clawing for points, and suddenly seeing a top center return, a point of weakness throughout the roster, more than enhance the team's play and playoff odds. The Red Wings need Larkin to restore structure down the middle, stabilize matchups and raise the team’s overall floor. He's the type of player who will make the difference in those tight one-goal playoff-like games down the stretch.
What the Red Wings get back with Dylan Larkin in the lineup
Larkin remains Detroit’s most complete forward, and the numbers back up what the eye test has shown for years. While he isn't the team leader in points or goals (DeBrincat leads both with 35 goals and 73 points), he represents the heart and soul of Detroit's lineup. He does it all while carrying the kinds of minutes that quietly define a team’s identity. Larkin has averaged more than 20 minutes a night. That workload isn’t sheltered; Larkin is a trusted option in all situations, including penalty killing and head-to-head assignments against top lines.
At five-on-five, his impact shows up in both process stats and box scores. Larkin has posted a 50.8% Corsi For percentage at even strength, paired with a +2.8 Relative Corsi For percentage. To put it simply: when he’s on the ice, Detroit is tilting shot attempts in the right direction, and the team is doing so more effectively with him than without him. Over a small sample, that can look like noise. Over the grind of a season, it can be the difference between winning and losing.
Then there’s the part of the job that rarely trends on social media but absolutely moves the needle in the standings: faceoffs. Larkin’s 52.6% success rate gives Detroit a legitimate weapon in the circle. With Larkin, the team can secure a defensive-zone draw on the penalty kill, set up a play off an offensive-zone win, or simply end a shift with control instead of scrambling. Add in his speed through the neutral zone and his willingness to check and you have a center who can both drive offense and help keep goals off the board.
The remaining schedule gives Detroit both opportunity and urgency. A run of games against Ottawa, Buffalo, Philadelphia (x3), Pittsburgh, the Rangers, the Wild and Columbus is a mix of wild card chaos and opponent styles that can punish lapses. There are points available, but none of them come with a guarantee. At this time of year, teams are either desperate for their own standings' life or playing loose with nothing to lose.
That’s exactly why the Red Wings can’t afford too many nights where they play well, generate chances, and still leave the rink empty-handed. Larkin helps solidify Detroit's overall chances of making the postseason. Without him, the ship keeps taking on water. The Red Wings need him back before it's too late in the season to be rescued.