While I’m adamant that the Red Wings won’t make the 2025 NHL Playoffs, the truth is, they’re not mathematically finished yet. So, while there’s still hope, expect the Wings to at least try to start winning some games again and close the gap on the Eastern Conference wild card race.
Overall, they’ve been migraine-inducing, but is Dylan Larkin’s lack of impact to blame? Larkin, who has been the team’s heart and soul, hasn’t played to his potential since play resumed after the 4 Nations Face-Off, and the Wings haven’t picked up the slack.
Last season, an injury to Larkin crushed the team’s morale and you can argue it’s one major reason why they missed the playoffs. This year, Larkin has been healthy, but his overall play has been, at best, mediocre. And when the ultra-talented team captain isn’t playing his best game, there’s a good chance it holds down the entire team.
Dylan Larkin’s game has stagnated since the 4 Nations Face-Off
Heading into Thursday night, the Red Wings have played in 16 games since the 4 Nations and Larkin has 12 points and five goals in that span. Overall, it’s 0.75 points per game, which isn’t a bad number. But when you’re a vital part of the team, it’s a different story.
And this is the case with Larkin, who, overall, has 62 points and 28 goals in 71 games. So, let’s take away 16 games, and you get 55, and when you take away 12 points and five goals, you get 50 points and 23 goals. Take 50 divided by 55, and Larkin was averaging 0.909 points per contest before the 4 Nations.
But it’s not just points, as Larkin also has a minus-9 rating on the season, but a minus-8 since the 4 Nations. This tells us his rating before the break sat at a minus-1. He has also won 50.8 percent of his faceoffs since the 4 Nations, but his overall faceoff win percentage is 54.8. So, his numbers have dropped all across the board, and that can’t happen to an impact player.
Larkin’s play needs to match its pre-4 Nations Face-Off level
Ideally, Red Wings fans would see others step up and compensate for what Larkin isn’t bringing at this point. But that doesn’t seem to be the case. So, as arguably the team’s greatest impact player, he’s the one who needs to take charge. Should his play improve for the final three weeks of the season, you will see a better Red Wings unit on the ice.
But just like last season, they’ll need to win often and come up with a little bit of luck if they want their streak without a postseason berth to end. Sure, it takes a team effort to end up in the postseason as one of the top eight in the Eastern Conference, but when the leader hasn’t been playing his best hockey, he will make it a lot harder to reach that goal.
In a dire situation like this, Larkin must step up and prove that he can help his group navigate through its most difficult stretch. If it somehow ended in a playoff berth, he’ll deserve a lot of credit here. And even if the Wings improved but missed the postseason, Larkin must shoulder some blame here, because there are no moral victories this time around.