Marco Kasper's sophomore season has been a disappointment. In 77 games ths season, the struggling sophomore has just 18 points on the season. His shooting percentage sits at 6.5%, dead last among all active forwards on the roster with nine games or more. Bizarrely enough, though, his 18 points put him ahead of three other forwards on the bottom-six: Mason Appleton (14), Michael Rasmussen (14) and Dominik Shine (3 in 16GP).
These numbers - especially for a top-10 first-round pick - may spark panic among fans. Given the trajectory of players like the aforementioned Michael Rasmussen, this is entirely fair. But his efforts this season follow a similar trajectory to a handful of other breakout players throughout the NHL.
While his sophomore season has left a lot to be desired, the Red Wings have nothing to worry about with their burgeoning forward.
Kasper's slump mirrored by other NHLers
It isn't uncommon for an NHL player to experience a sophomore slump. Dylan Larkin, after an exciting 45 point rookie campaign, sputtered out with a 32 point slump in his second season. Lucas Raymond followed up a Calder-worthy 57 point rookie year with a 45 point sophomore year. While Kasper's dip (a 19-point drop from his 37-point rookie season) may be cause for concern among some, it's an extremely regular occurrence in the NHL.
In fact, his sophomore slump is eerily similar to Conn Smythe-winner Sam Bennett.
Sam Bennett | Marco Kasper |
|---|---|
Rookie season | Rookie season |
18G 18A 36P | 19G 18A 37P |
Sophomore slump | Sophomore slump |
13G 13A 26P | 8G 10A 18P |
While Bennett had more points on the Flames, it's important to recognize context. Bennett played in Calgary's top-six, averaging 14:59 a night -- nearly a full minute over Kasper's 13:50 this season. Bennett served on the team's second line, occasionally filling in on the team's top line following injuries. Kasper, on the other hand, has played everywhere from Dylan Larkin's wing to a bottom-line checking role.
If he can put the pieces together like Bennett has, he'll have quite the career on his hands. This, of course, requires Kasper to take the lessons he's learned from this season into account. The good news is that he's curretnly leading the team in hits by a wide margin. He's also just 21 years old. NHL forwards typically enter their prime near the end of their 20s.
A sophomore slump doesn't have to last forever.
Another NHLer with a similar trajectory
There was a point in time where Sean Couturier was among the greatest two-way forwards in the NHL. The 2019-20 Selke Trophy and Philadelphia Flyers captain, in his sophomore (and junior) campaign, also hit a snag:
Sean Couturier seasons:
Season | GP | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2011-12 | 77 | 13 | 14 | 27 |
2012-13 | 46 | 4 | 11 | 15 |
2013-14 | 82 | 13 | 26 | 39 |
Couturier's sophomore season - the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season - had the two-way center scoring at a 26-point pace. Like Kasper, his points and production took a hit across the board in his second season. His third year, while an improvement, still left a little to be desired. It wasn't until later in his career - when he was given more offensive responsibility - that he broke out.
In the 2016-17 season (Couturier was 26 at the time), the center broke out, scoring 31 goals and 45 assists for 76 points in 82 games. This, of course, isn't to say that Kasper will become a player of Couturier's caliber -- but similar production numbers certainly warrant discussion.
Why Kasper will bounce back next season
Sophomore slumps, much like the ebb and flow of goaltending, are inevitable. While some manage to break free of the confines, others fall victim to the doldrums. This offseason will be Kasper's opportunity to practice everything he's learned this season. He'll use it to build up strength, improve his shot and make his presence known on the ice.
The offseason should serve as the perfect reset button for both Kasper and the rest of the team. It's entirely possible that, by the start of next season, he'll even have some new linemates. The good news is that Kasper is young and still has plenty of time to develop.
After all, if we judged every NHLer by their sophomore campaign, Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond wouldn't be seen as anything more than depth forwards.