The Detroit Red Wings have received some warranted criticism over the past month with their annual March trip into the depths of despair.
Many fans are longing for playoffs. Demanding that playoffs happen this season, otherwise, Steve Yzerman’s job should be on the hot seat. While I understand the demands and can empathize with frustration, the Red Wings are progressing in a positive direction—regardless of what March holds or the lackluster trades or free agent signings. Yzerman’s bread and butter, as most fans realize, comes from the drafted prospects in the Wings organization.
As Detroit chases the second wild card spot, they seem to be right where Yzerman expected them to be after they tripped and rolled backward to start the season. Even with the poor output that is March, new head coach Todd McLellan is keeping his team in the fight for a playoff spot. Yzerman said in his media availability after their former head coach was relieved of his duties that he expected the Wings to push for a playoff spot (not necessarily make it, but be in the mix of it). That’s exactly where they are.
People may not enjoy the more recent play or how they got to this point, but the Detroit Red Wings are right where they are scheduled to be. Not ahead of schedule, not behind, but right where they’re anticipated from the start of the season. Yzerman’s seat is safe not because of his name or his history as a player in Detroit, but by his output so far in his tenure as general manager of the Wings since 2019.
Revisiting Steve Yzerman’s success thus far as the Detroit Red Wings general manager
Many fans forget the first few years weren’t even rebuilding, with the exception of draft picks. Yzerman’s focus had to be tearing down the previous regime’s setup. The ridiculous contracts, some of which Yzerman is literally still paying off (I get that the Red Wings aren’t at the cap, but the point still remains—Yzerman is still paying for Ken Holland’s mistakes).
Even in his first draft, where he had minimal time to research or formulate a plan with his new staff, he hit home runs with his picks. Everybody agrees Moritz Seider is a pillar of this new Red Wings dynasty. Add to the mix Albert Johansson playing in the National Hockey League (NHL) and playing important minutes for the team (regardless of how effective he might be or his longevity), and the fact that the Wings have two NHL players means the draft was a success. Add in right-handed shooting defenseman Antti Tuomisto, a 2019 second-round pick who is still developing with the Grand Rapids Griffins of the American Hockey League (AHL), and Carter Gylander, a 2019 seventh-round pick, is tending net for the Toledo Walleye of the ECHL, and the draft is even more successful.
Even Kirill Tyutyayev, a seventh-round, feisty forward, played games for both the Griffins and Walleye. Although he’s no longer a member of the Wings organization, the fact that so many players saw professional games in Detroit’s system speaks volumes about his amateur scouting team and Yzerman’s drafting.
There have been plenty of mistakes in terms of signings and players that fans aren’t keen to watch play in the Winged Wheel. I’m open about my lack of appreciation for various players, but for as much as I criticize a player like Ben Chiarot, it’s hard to find another player who would be able to take the minutes he does for the Wings.
Detroit, believe it or not, is not the booming hockey city it once was where players flocked to get into the pearly gates. Instead, it’s a hard-working, underappreciated city with state income tax and gloomy weather in the winter. Add to it a rebuilding team and we have a formula that equates to little attractions to draw free agents.
We can yell and scream all we want about veterans playing poorly, young guys spending excessive amounts of time in Grand Rapids in favor of veterans, or complain about Yzerman’s choices in free agency. At the end of the day, though, Yzerman can only sign players to contracts as free agents if they want to come to Detroit. If they don’t, there’s not much that can make them come here unless they are paid extremely high and/or long contracts—something Yzerman is hesitant to do (thankfully).
These contracts and players’ output may not be successes, but they’re far from failures. Each contract keeps the Detroit Red Wings well under the cap with plenty of flexibility moving forward. No long-term contracts have been issued except for Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, and Moritz Seider—all are on reasonable contracts that likely turn into steals for the latter two over the next five to 10 years with their performance and cap increase.
Also, if young players are ready, the Wings organization has shown (especially more recently with McLellan) that they aren’t afraid to sit older players in favor of younger ones. It’s how we lost Christian Fischer to waivers, why we traded Olli Määttä for peanuts, and partly why Joseph Veleno was shipped out to the Chicago Blackhawks.
I hear the detractors, yes, I know they received two veterans back in exchange for Veleno: Petr Mrázek and Craig Smith. I think Mrázek has shown why Yzerman traded for him, and Smith has been a welcomed sight to the team. Another high-energy player with a bit more consistency in his game than Veleno or Fischer it seems.
With the emergence of Marco Kasper, Albert Johansson, Simon Edvinsson, and Elmer Söderblom, McLellan and Yzerman have proven that if a young player is a better option than a veteran they have no hesitation in icing the youngster. If it’s a tie (or close to it), there seems to be a rotation like in the case of Jonatan Berggren and the bottom six where injuries have also played a role.
As much as we complain about the likes of J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp, I think they both have shown their worth at different points so far in their contracts. Last year, Compher was a huge part of the Red Wings push towards a playoff spot. Seemingly, though, he hasn’t fully recovered from an injury that plagued him last season and it might even be impacting him this season as he hasn’t looked quite right since.
As for Copp, I think it’s safe to say that until Kasper took over his second-line duties, Copp fulfilled the second-line center role to the best of his abilities. While we all want to see Nate Danielson and Amadeus Lombardi in Hockeytown, the truth of the matter is that they’re not quite ready for The Show. That’s not to say their development has stagnated or fallen behind, it’s just that they need more time to build better, more consistent habits. Also, having the time to fill out physically for both players is huge and it’s much easier to achieve in the AHL as opposed to the NHL. If either player was ready to step into the second (or even third-line center role), I have full confidence that they would be given that opportunity as soon as yesterday. It’s just not the case right now.
Biggest blemish on Steve Yzerman’s tenure so far with the Detroit Red Wings
As for Sebastian Cossa, I can see the draw to keep him in the NHL. He’s a big reason for my many trips to Grand Rapids over the last few years.
Much like The Supremes (or Phil Collins) sing that we can’t hurry love, we also can’t hurry the development of young goaltenders. If there’s a player we aren’t meant to rush along in their development, it’s Cossa.
Forget the cost of moving up in the draft to select a top goaltending prospect or the fact that the Wings chose public scouts’ consensus number two goalie of the 2021 NHL Entry Level Draft, picking any goaltender in the first round is a huge gamble. It's one that Yzerman already took back in his Tampa Bay Lightning days, which seemed to work out okay for the Lightning.
For all the talk of Edvinsson, Raymond, Seider, Axel Sandin Pellikka, etc., I think the biggest turning point for this rebuild has to be Cossa. They say that a goaltender can make up 70% of a win, but 100% of a loss. Red Wings fans are all too familiar with the latter part of this idea but it’s been too long since we’ve had a consistent goaltender who makes up the majority of wins for our club.
No matter how great their defense is built, their forward group develops, and if there’s inconsistent goaltending, everything is all for nothing.
As much as I would love to report that Cossa is ready for a full-time gig in the NHL or has earned his spot with the Red Wings to close out the NHL season, it just isn’t the case. Cossa is coming along well in his development. He’s providing much better consistency in his game. However, this season, he was meant to get the majority of starts (head coach of the Griffins Dan Watson hoped for close to 60 games for Cossa to start).
To start the season, Cossa had a lot of playing time—even going in back-to-back games.
By my count, the Griffins have nine games remaining as of writing this piece. Cossa has played in 35 games, a far cry from the 50-60 games Watson hoped for to begin the season. According to that same Elite Prospects page for Cossa, he’s amassed a goals-against average (GAA) of 2.38 (down from 2.41 in 40 games played last season) and an identical .913 save percentage (SAV%) from last season to this season. His record this season is 19-11-6 (as opposed to 22-9-9 last season). In one appearance in the NHL, Cossa had a GAA of 2.38 and a SAV% of .857.
So, Cossa’s statistical output isn’t much different from last season and is still considered good (he is 10th in the AHL in GAA and 11th in SAV% according to the AHL website). The question is why hasn’t Cossa played more games this season?
There is one real sore spot that fans can point to when discussing Yzerman’s strategy thus far in the rebuild: goaltending. Instead of signing one or two really good goaltenders (regardless of why he didn’t), he over-signed unproven, young goaltenders or unreliable veterans (whether in play or health, maybe a combo of each)—especially this offseason.
I love Cam Talbot and have expressed my excitement when he joined the squad. With Ville Husso, Jack Campbell, and Alex Lyon on the books already, though, it seemed like a bit of overkill. As it turned out, the Wings actually used all but Campbell in the NHL this season for a decent number of games in Husso’s case, while Lyon and Talbot have earned the majority of the starts.
This overabundance of goaltenders led Husso to shuffle between the AHL and NHL pretty regularly. In the AHL, Husso played in 13 games for the Griffins. He earned a respectable 2.70 GAA and a .912 SAV%. It’s likely that Cossa wouldn’t have played in all 13 games that Husso played in, but he would have taken quite a few games—thus inflating his 35 games so far this season. (Campbell has only started in 11 games, a reasonable amount for a backup goaltender in the AHL, but inconsistent starts led to inconsistent output for the veteran with a 3.01 GAA and SAV$ of .882 this season.)
I can understand Watson’s need to rotate the goaltenders for the Grand Rapids Griffins (it’s only fair to the players). Yet, with the odd schedule of the AHL, the starts would come at weird times for each goaltender it was hard for any goaltender to really take hold of the net, though the clear favorite was Cossa. At this stage in his development, consistency is key for Cossa. Consistent starts, with consistent teammates, coaches, systems, and opponents make the draw of the AHL too good to pass up.
In times of support, Cossa is pretty much the only third option for the Wings at this stage as Husso was traded. With Mrázek out indefinitely and the inconsistent play of both Lyon and Talbot, I see the intrigue Cossa brings. Wins for the Red Wings are the most important thing right now, but it is an important balancing act for Yzerman.
Pull up Cossa too soon and there’s a risk his confidence could be shaken with a poor performance (either by Cossa directly, the team’s play in front of him, or a combination of both), and it’s a concern that should be a the forefront of every fan’s mind. Cossa may be ready for a full time in the NHL, but based on the lack of starts alone in the AHL, I prefer to see him continue playing in the AHL unless there is a need for him in the NHL due to injury (or exceptionally poor play from all available NHL-level goalies).
With Yzerman, there’s a bit of overseasoning prospects at times. I think Berggren and Edvinsson are two prime examples that come to mind. However, I’m not sure that either suffered developmentally from remaining in the AHL for too long.
I appreciate that no matter how dire the need is at the NHL, the prospect’s development comes first. Cossa is the prime example of this perk in Yzerman’s tenure. If Yzerman felt Cossa was ready for a full-time gig in the NHL, Cossa would be playing most games for the Wings. He would trade or waive whomever he needed to in order to get Cossa playing time.
Trading for Mrázek is an insurance policy in case Cossa still needs time, which I appreciate as well. If Cossa blows the doors of the next training camp and preseason, then he will easily get the start over Talbot or Mrázek. If Cossa isn’t ready, there’s no harm, no foul, and Cossa can actually get consistent starts in the AHL without having to worry about a veteran goaltender taking starts away from Cossa.
Future of the Detroit Red Wings is on track, thanks to Steve Yzerman’s prospects and their drive to the playoffs
In terms of playoff hockey, I know we are all dying for the Detroit Red Wings to make it to the playoffs. We have the Detroit Lions and Tigers who made the playoffs in their previous seasons, and the Detroit Pistons are heading to the playoffs as well. Little Caesars Arena is begging not only for basketball playoffs but also hockey playoffs—something it’s missed since its opening in 2017.
The Red Wings are still in the mix of teams for the second wild card spot in the NHL, but I can tell you the excitement shouldn’t be focused on the Wings themselves.
Due to their hot start and continued success (despite the Wings raiding their cupboards all season long), the Griffins clinched a playoff spot this past weekend without even skating in a game.
Then, today, Sandin Pellikka and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard of Skellefteå AIK play against Färjestad BK in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL). It’s my understanding that Skellefteå AIK could move on to the second round of the playoffs with a victory.
Both the Griffins and Skellefteå AIK have served as tremendous development groups for the Detroit Red Wings prospects over the last few years. Of course, the AHL is the development league for the NHL, which has been the focus of Yzerman so far in his tenure with the Wings (after dismantling most of the mess the previous general manager left).
For the second time in a row, the Griffins get a chance at the Calder Cup playoffs, a reflection of the hard work and determination the team has put forth. It’s something that I know Cossa was hungry for all season, as he wasn’t happy with the early playoff exit last season for the team. Couple this information with the success of Sandin Pellikka and Brandsegg-Nygård have earned in the SHL and things are looking exceptional for the Yzerplan.
If Brandsegg-Nygård and Sandin Pellikka’s season comes to a close in the SHL, they are likely heading to North America to either help the Wings or Griffins in their playoff fights.
Of course, the Toledo Walleye are playoff-bound as well. Although they don’t have the shine that some other teams do, with the likes of Sandin Pellikka or Danielson, but Gylander is holding down the fort with a respectable 2.65 GAA and a .906 SAV% in 32 games played with a 19-8-5 record per Elite Prospects. The Walleye is an organization that provides an elite experience for its fans, while players love it there.
Now, there are some questions as to whether the other star goaltender in the Wings prospect pipeline, Trey Augustine, will turn pro now that his Michigan State Spartans are finished for the season. I’m sure Red Savage would have been included in these rumors, but he’s still recovering from an injury, so we likely won’t know more about Savage until this summer.
These prospects are just the tip of the iceberg. Guys like Dmitri Buchelnikov, Max Plante, Dylan James, and too many other names to list here are progressing as well as fans could hope. Plenty of these lesser-known prospects have made their way onto my no-trade list, as well.
Even though the Red Wings season is in a state of flux, Yzerman’s vision is still trudging along. Possibly slower than fans had hoped for to start, but Yzerman’s unwavering commitment to his beloved team is showing in spades as his prospects take the next steps.