Unless you are one of the elite prospects, and even then, the transition from junior hockey, the minor leagues, and even the professional European leagues to the NHL is rarely a smooth ride. Detroit Red Wings second-year center Marco Kasper is finding that out firsthand. Kasper, 21, is on a similar path to Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin, which can be turned into a positive understanding that Detroit's captain will be able to help his young teammate through his current struggles.
Dylan Larkin entered the NHL in 2015-16 as a highly touted prospect, immediately making an impact with his speed, tenacity, and offensive flair. Larkin, 19, burst onto the scene, recording 23 goals and 45 points while maintaining a plus-11 rating.
That season, Larkin was eased into things, playing on the wing, which limited his defensive zone responsibilities, a luxury for the Red Wings and Larkin, knowing Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk, albeit aging, were able to shoulder the load down the middle.
Similar to Larkin, Marco Kasper joined the Detroit Red Wings with high expectations after being selected eighth overall in the 2022 NHL Draft due to his strong play in the Swedish Hockey League and at the International level. Kasper joined the organization with a reputation for his relentless work ethic, two-way ability, and leadership potential.
Kasper’s rookie season showed flashes of his promise, setting up anticipation for a breakout in his second year. In year one, Kasper amassed 19 goals and totaled 37 points over 77 games. He maintained a plus-1 rating and skated over 15 minutes a night for Detroit.
Taking a look at Dylan Larkin's slight decline analytically in year two, comparing it to Marco Kasper
Analytics provide us with some deeper insight into Larkin’s struggles. His CF% (Corsi For Percentage) dropped from 53.2 in his rookie year to 50.7 in year two, which indicates a decrease in the team’s puck possession while he was on the ice. His xGF% of 48 (expected goals for percentage) also declined, suggesting fewer high-quality chances were generated.
Larkin’s deployment shifted as well: he was assigned to tougher matchups with Datsyuk, then out of the picture, and with Zetterberg, a year older, which required more defensive-zone starts for Larkin and reduced his offensive opportunities.
This season, Marco Kasper has been marked by similar turbulence. Kasper’s CF hovers around 49.5, slightly below the team average, and his xGF% has dropped to 47, down a bit from last season, mirroring Larkin’s sophomore pattern. His PDO 96.8 (a measure of luck, combining shooting and save percentage) suggests he’s been somewhat snakebitten, with fewer bounces going his way. Larkin's POD in year two came in at 97.5.
Now, there is no guarantee Kasper will develop into what Larkin has become, but the Detroit Red Wings drafted Kasper to be a top-six forward and hopefully the team's No. 2 center. What I am trying to describe here is that the two players have taken a similar path from their rookie season to their second year.
Marco Kasper's play could be reaching a turning point
There is no reason to panic when it comes to Kasper; he needs some time to re-establish himself. Head coach Todd McLellan has experimented with Kasper; he began the year as Detroit's second center between Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat.
As he's struggled to find his way, McLellan has moved him up and down the lineup and now from center to the wing. He's carved out a nice role of late, playing on a line with Elmer Soderblom and rookie Nate Danielson.
Kasper’s role has also evolved: increased defensive responsibilities, tougher opposition matchups, and more penalty-killing time have tested his adaptability. It is noteworthy to mention that Kasper's work ethic, physicality, and willingness to forecheck remain strong. He may not be finding the scoresheet nearly as much as we'd like, but he's helping out in a variety of other ways.
As of now, Kasper is on pace for 11 goals and 27 points this season.