Perhaps at long last, the Detroit Red Wings are finally getting things right after some recent encouraging performances. But it doesn’t mean the trajectory of a few major statistics that have haunted them will change this season.
And yeah, I know, some might say that the only real important statistic in any sport is the win/loss, or to be more hockey-specific, points column. They’re not wrong. But to fare well and gain enough points required to be a top-eight team in the conference, it’s often a culmination of some crucial stats.
Today, we’re going over three of those statistics and talking about what’s been haunting Detroit since the puck first dropped in October.
Penalty Kill
You can’t say enough about the Red Wings power play, but their penalty kill has been nothing short of a horror story this season. While the Wings are eighth on the man advantage, their 67.86 PK unit is the second-worst in hockey, in front of only the New York Islanders.
What’s even more frustrating is that the PK hasn’t been on the ice long this season, with just 84 opportunities so far. That number ranks as the seventh-best in the league alongside the Anaheim Ducks.
It’s a twist of irony for Red Wings fans because it implies that the Wings are a high-octane bunch once again in 2024-25. But the following two statistics show that, in actuality, they hold themselves back when they have the puck.
Actual Goals For at 5-on-5
You look at the Red Wings expected goals for (xGF) at 5-on-5 this season, and that number sits at just 58.7. No, that’s not good, and it’s the sixth-worst mark in hockey. But things get even bleaker when you look at just 50 actual goals for (aGF), which is the third-worst mark in the league heading into Thursday night.
That alone shows us why the Wings have been so bad offensively, and the next stat line sheds more light on it. But here’s the discouraging part: The Wings expected goals allowed (xGA) sits at 63.3, which ranks roughly in the middle of the league. But their actual goals allowed (aGA) is 56, a top-10 mark.
Imagine if the Wings continued to play well defensively and in the net, but they decided to show up offensively more often. Yeah, we’d be having a different conversation right now.
Shots For
Overall, the Red Wings are among the worst teams in the league in shots for, sitting at just 785 on the year. Only the Montreal Canadiens, 755 shots, have fared worse, and it’s a tell-tale sign of why the Wings actual goals for, and even expected goals for, are so low.
Take the average number, and Detroit has just 25.3 shots per game. Yeah, that’s a far cry from where they need to be, where I’ve always considered somewhere between 29 and 30 as average.
That might not sound like a lot because, to some, what are four or five extra shots per contest? Well, for one, they give the Wings four or five more chances to score in the short term. But multiple four by 51, and you get another 204 times, on average, more chances for each remaining game left this season.
Bump that number to five shots per game, and that number becomes 255. Considering the Wings, at 5-on-5, are converting 7.6 percent of shots on goal, they could theoretically convert another 15 to 20 goals this season. But that doesn’t take into account their magnificent power play.