A deep look at predicting the full Detroit Red Wings roster for opening night

Detroit Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman has always said he doesn’t pencil any prospect or veteran, for that matter, into the lineup during the off-season but always gives them a fair opportunity to make the roster during training camp and the preseason. We’ve seen this in recent years with Lucas Raymond,  Elmer Soderblom, and Bobby Ryan, among others.

I appreciate Yzerman’s willingness to make an unpopular decision for the better of the team. That goes for starting a highly touted prospect many fans want to see begin the year immediately in Detroit in Grand Rapids. It also means starting a player like Soderblom in Detroit over someone like Jonatan Berggren, as the Red Wings did last season. Or like Lucas Raymond over Bobby Ryan in previous years. Many of us, myself included, hope to see Detroit’s top two prospects, Simon Edvinsson and Marco Kasper, start the season in Detroit, but Yzerman’s busy off-season suggests otherwise.

This philosophy that Yzerman and his staff maintain is intriguing but difficult to predict. I can only assume Detroit Red Wings head coach Derek Lalonde has been writing out lineup cards all off-season, trying to figure out where he’d like to insert all of Detroit’s new players. This has likely intensified since the addition of star forward Alex DeBrincat. I picture Lalonde sitting on his couch in his living room, examining a whiteboard. He’s likely written down a lineup on a napkin at a restaurant.

In addition to adding DeBrincat, the Detroit Red Wings also traded for depth forward Klim Kostin. Yzerman also signed several free agents: J.T. Compher, Daniel Sprong, Christian Fischer, Justin Holl, Shayne Gostisbehere, James Reimer, and Alex Lyon. I expect Reimer to begin the season as Ville Husso’s primary backup netminder.

I will take a far too early attempt to guess Detroit’s opening night lineup, which will presumably change multiple times between now and October.

The Detroit Red Wings top line: Michael Rasmussen-Dylan Larkin-Alex DeBrincat

The Detroit Red Wings are finally adding a bona fide scorer to the top unit, playing alongside Dylan Larkin. DeBrincat, 25, a two-time 41-goal scorer, gives the Red Wings a much-needed offensive punch. DeBrincat does have defensive deficiencies, but playing with Larkin will help mask them. Larkin is an excellent two-way center coming off a near-point-per-game pace last season.

Expect a career year from Detroit’s captain this coming season. Larkin is coming off back-to-back 30-plus goal seasons. He’s (finally) established himself as a top NHL center; although he’s not in the elite category, he’s an exceptionally talented player. If the Detroit Red Wings want to make a run at the Stanley Cup eventually, they need to find a running mate for Larkin down the middle of their lineup. Perhaps Marco Kasper will grow into that role over the next few seasons.

DeBrincat is coming off a 27-goal, 66-point season with the Ottawa Senators; if that production is his ‘floor’ the Detroit Red Wings will be in great shape moving forward.

I’ve added Michael Rasmussen to this unit for size, his ability to work the wall down low, and a net-front presence to round out the line with Detroit’s two top offensive options. Rasmussen began to soar last season before suffering a season-ending injury when Lalonde moved him to the wing. Rasmussen has scoring touch around the net, and if he can remain healthy should be able to crack the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career.

The Detroit Red Wings fourth line: Klim Kostin-Joe Veleno-Robby Fabbri

This summer, Steve Yzerman made a trade with former Detroit Red Wings general manager Ken Holland, now of the Edmonton Oilers. Yzerman landed Kailer Yamamoto along with Klim Kostin for future considerations. The move freed up over $3 million in space for the Oilers and rewarded Detroit with Kostin’s signing rights. Yzerman elected to buy out Yamamoto, who quickly signed with the Seattle Kraken and extended Kostin. Kostin, 24, signed a two-year deal worth $ 4 million. The Russian-born winger is a solid 6-foot-3 and brings some size and grit to Detroit’s lineup, plus he possesses some offensive abilities. Kostin is coming off an 11-goal, 21-point season with Edmonton.

When you add Kostin to a line with a speedy center like Joe Veleno, and the crafty Robby Fabbri, this has the makings to be more of a third line than a fourth group. Fabbri’s kryptonite is remaining healthy. Fabbri was limited to just 28 games last season after re-joining the team in early January after recovering from a third serious knee injury that required surgery last spring. Fabbri was also shut down early due to precautionary measures after hurting his knee, but thankfully the injury proved not severe. Fabbri, 27, recorded seven goals and 16 points last season but scored 17 the year before over 56 games for the Detroit Red Wings. If Fabbri can remain healthy, he brings a Pius Suter-like option to Detroit’s lineup with his ability to play up and down the lineup, down the middle or on the wing. For now, I predict he’ll begin on the fourth line.

This upcoming season is sort of a sink-or-swim season for Veleno, a former first-round selection of the Detroit Red Wings. Veleno, 23, is a tremendous skater and has shown flashes of offensive excellence but hasn’t been able to be a consistent contributor. Veleno recorded a career-high nine goals and 20 points last season over 81 games. If Veleno is going to grow into more than a bottom-six forward, we need to see him take some strides this season, perhaps scoring 15 goals and surpassing the 30-point mark.

The Detroit Red Wings projected defense pairings.

Moritz Seider and Jake Walman will headline the Detroit Red Wings’ backend.

The top pairing for the Detroit Red Wings should remain the same as last season. Moritz Seider will anchor the group and will be paired with Jake Walman. The two quickly built up some tremendous chemistry last season. Walman began the year on Detroit’s third pairing yet cemented his role alongside Seider shortly after.

Seider, 22, averaged over 23 minutes per night for the second straight season, and while his offensive production slightly dipped, he’s far and away Detroit’s top defender. Seider recorded just five goals and 42 points last season, down from 50 points as a rookie. In addition to his offense, Seider does far more to impact the game on a nightly basis. Last season he recorded a whopping 207 hits and blocked 190 shots; both numbers had significantly increased from his Calder-winning season.

Walman, 27, enjoyed a career year recording nine goals and 18 points while maintaining a plus-10 rating averaging just under 20 minutes per night, all career bests. Walman is a fluid skater and compliments Seider nicely. He also blocked 121 shots last year and recorded 47 hits, both underrated facets of his game.

The Detroit Red Wings second pairing- Ben Chiarot-Justin Holl

I know many of you are underwhelmed, but I seriously don’t believe Ben Chiarot is as bad as he performed for the Detroit Red Wings last season. Chiarot played exceptionally well paired with Shea Weber a couple of years ago, playing nearly 30 minutes a night during Montreal’s Cinderella run to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Chiarot averaged over 20 minutes per game last season, and while many fans continued to criticize his effectiveness, head coach Derek Lalonde continued to lean on his veteran defenseman. Chiarot recorded five goals and 19 points over 76 games but was an awful minus -31 on the season. Chiarot’s 42.3 Corsi For Percentage was also poor and far off from his career average of 49%. Chiarot should pair well with newly signed Justin Holl.

Detroit’s potential second pairing each play with an edge and are both 6-foot-3. Holl didn’t exactly perform as expected during his tenure with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but he fills a void left behind by Filip Hronek on the right side of the Red Wings lineup. Holl scored a pair of goals last season and totaled 18 points over 80 games with the Leafs while maintaining a plus-15 rating. Holl had 139 blocks and 151 hits last season.

The Detroit Red Wings third pairing- Olli Maatta-Shayne Gostisbehere

The biggest thing that stands out is how big of an upgrade this third pairing projects compared to Detroit’s third pairing from a year ago. Last season the third group was a revolving door but usually consisted of some combination of Robert Hagg, Gustav Lindstrom, and Jordan Oesterle.

Olli Maatta proved to be a very stable presence in Detroit’s lineup last season and excelled paired with Filip Hronek until the surging offensive defender was dealt to Vancouver. Yzerman thought so much of Maatta that he elected to extend him ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline rather than trade him as a rental to a playoff-bound club. Maatta signed a two-year extension that averages $3 million per season.

I expect Maatta to be paired with the newly acquired Shayne Gostisbehere. Gostisbehere, 30, like Hronek, is an offensive-minded defender that should gel well with the ever-so-reliable Maatta. Gostisbehere is coming off a 13-goal, 41-point season split between the Arizona Coyotes and the Carolina Hurricanes. The Detroit Red Wings inked the veteran defender to a one-year deal worth $4.12 million.

The Detroit Red Wings ‘black aces’: Gustav Lindstrom, Austin Czarnik, Christian Fischer

The term black aces comes from Don Cherry. I remember a clip from CBC’s 1997 Stanley Cup Finals broadcast where Cherry referred to Detroit’s healthy scratches as the ‘black aces.’ Cherry spoke about how important the scratches are to a team; they practice every day and continue to push the bottom of the lineup for a spot. It’s also important not to have a young player scratched regularly for fear of stunting their development. Also, you need players that, if called upon, can make an impact in whatever role is asked of them.

Austin Czarnik filled in nicely last season when the Red Wings were hit with injuries. The 30-year-old Detroit native appeared in 29 games, recording three goals and five points while skating to a minus-4 rating. He can play both the wing and center.

Gustav Lindstrom is a surprise on this list. The recently pending restricted free agent re-upped with the Red Wings after much speculation that he’d be headed overseas for the upcoming season. Last year he played in 36 games recording eight points and a minus-16 rating.

Christian Fischer is a grinder-type of forward that has proven to be a reliable depth scorer in the past and a solid contributor on the penalty kill. He will bring a bit of sandpaper to the fourth line when called upon and some scoring touch. The 6-foot-2 winger is coming off a efficient 13-goal, 27-point season for the Arizona Coyotes.

As the summer grows old, I may find myself swapping Fischer for Kostin or even Veleno or Fabbri on Detroit’s fourth line.