Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Game 40 Preview, Odds, and Prediction
By Bob Heyrman
The Detroit Red Wings will faceoff with the mighty Toronto Maple Leafs Thursday evening. The same Leafs team that disposed of the Red Wings 4-1 this past Saturday night in Toronto.
The Maple Leafs enter the contest amid a three-game win streak that started last Saturday and is 7-2-1 over their last ten games. Toronto is coming off a 2-1 victory over the Nashville Predators Wednesday night. If Derek Lalonde’s Red Wings can weather Toronto’s early storm, Detroit will have a great opportunity to wear down the Leafs as the night goes on, knowing they are in the second game of a back-to-back.
The Detroit Red Wings are coming off an ugly 7-5 victory over the Winnipeg Jets. Detroit was able to jump out to a big lead but was unable to finish the game without having fans hold their breath. The Jets battled back to within one goal with about five minutes left before Lucas Raymond relieved the pressure by hitting the empty net.
Raymond and Moritz Seider combined for a seven-point night. Seider recorded four assists, while Raymond netted a goal and added a pair of assists. Detroit enters the night sputtering to a 4-5-1 record over their last ten games.
The Red Wings enter the night averaging 3.1 goals per game while allowing 3.4; meanwhile, Toronto scores at a clip of 3.4 goals per game yet allows just 2.6. Detroit’s special teams have been anything but special in 2022-23, but the return of Tyler Bertuzzi and Robby Fabbri should help right the ship over the second half of the season. Detroit has maintained a below-average power-play unit that operates with a 19.9% success rate. Detroit’s penalty kill isn’t much better at 75%. In turn, Toronto’s power-play scores on 25% of their opportunities and kill off 78.6% of their short-handed chances.
Dylan Larkin leads the Red Wings with 14 goals and 35 points on the season. Mitch Marner leads Toronto with 50 points, while William Nylander leads the group with 22 goals. The ever-so-dangerous Auston Matthews currently sits second on the team with 20 goals and 47 points, and captain John Tavares is not too far behind, having scored 20 goals totaling 42 points.
Matt Murray got the nod last evening for the Leafs in Nashville, so it looks like the goaltending matchup will be Ville Husso (13-8-5) for Detroit against Ilya Samsonov, who is 12-3-1 on the season with a 0.916 save percentage and 2.29 goals against average.
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Detroit Red Wings game information and prediction vs. the Toronto Maple Leafs
Game: Detroit Red Wings 17-15-7 v.s. Toronto Maple Leafs 26-9-7
When: Thursday, January 12th
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Where: Little Caesars Arena
Where to Watch: ESPN/TSN4
Last 10: Detroit 4-5-1 / Toronto 7-2-1
Odds: According to DraftKings, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the favorite tonight at -140 on the Moneyline. Detroit is +120. The Under/Over is set at 6.5, and you can take the Detroit Red Wings at +1.5 on the Puck Line for a -195 payout or Toronto -1.5 at +165.
Prediction: With a 50/50 crowd expected in Detroit, I expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to edge out the Detroit Red Wings for the third time this season. Toronto won the first meeting on November 28th in Detroit 4-2.
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This past Saturday was a 4-1 victory for the Leafs. Two things are familiar: Toronto is 2-0 against Detroit this season, and both games have been under 6.5 total goals. I’d be inclined to take the Under again tonight, knowing Toronto is on the second night of a back-to-back. The Red Wings will be looking to tighten things up defensively following their high-scoring matchup Tuesday with Winnipeg. Unfortunately, I am predicting another Leafs victory on both the Moneyline and Puck line.