Post-Free Agency Roster Predictions and Thoughts

A lot can change in a day. And in the Red Wings case, it did.

After being one of the worst teams in the NHL over the last 3 years, the Red Wings have pushed just about every available button so far this off-season to try to get better. Of course we will not see any on-ice product for another couple of months, but there are lots of reasons for optimism.

When you believe in your General Manager, and I feel confident in saying we all do, the next biggest singular move you can make to shake things up is to replace your Head Coach. This is exactly what Steve Yzerman elected to do, eventually replacing Jeff Blashill with Derek Lalonde.

We haven’t seen Lalonde coach this team yet, but from the resume and his comments from the introductory press conference, he seems like a guy who has proven his worth and honed his craft, and is ready for the next big step in his career. I can’t help but think that experience will be very valuable as he looks to help this young team take their next step in their development.

Then came the draft – I’m not sure whether it was because it was the first in-person draft in years, because it was in Montreal, because of the flat-cap crunch, or some combination thereof, but there was a lot happening in the year’s draft, particularly the first round. Not only did the Red Wings nab another great prospect in Marco Kasper, but they dealt a third-round pick to pick up, then sign, goaltender Ville Husso to really solidify the position. Yzerman also mentioned that there were “some other things” he had wanted to get done on draft night that did not materialize.

So before we had even arrived at free agency, we had already ticked a few major “rebuilding action item” boxes: replace head coach, check. Get another NHL goalie on the cheap (in a tight goalie market, by the way), check. Execute another draft, check.

Then came the opening of free agency this past Wednesday at noon, which turned out to be even more hectic and frenzied than the draft. And it should be no surprise that the Red Wings were no exception, as they continued to pursue every avenue to become a better team. In the first 24 hours of free agency, the Red Wings signed three forwards and three defensemen, and spent a whopping $20.7M in annual cap space to do so.

So what did we get for all that dough? And has it made the Red Wings a tangibly better team? It’s time for us to continue the exercise we started earlier to see how Yzerman has upgraded not only the roster, but the ever-important asset base we have to work with moving forward.

Once again, all praise and honor to CapFriendly for the details in this article and all week long.

The New and Improved Roster

I have the Red Wings new and Improved opening night roster looking something like this.

Note, for purposes of our discussion here, it’s not so much about whether the projected roster ends up being correct as it is being able to really see the upgrades that have been made. As such, I’ve shown how many lines players that were in the pre-free agency lineup have been demoted due to the free agent signings.

Vrána, Larkin, Bertuzzi
Raymond, Copp, Perron
Kubalik, Suter (-1), Zadina
Rasmussen (-1), Veleno, Erne (-1)

Extras/Top Prospects: Berggren (-3), Söderblom (-1), Czarnik, Smith (-1), Sundqvist (-1), Fabbri (IR)

Chiarot, Seider
Määttä, Hronek
Edvinsson (-1), Pysyk

Extras/Top Prospects: Lindström (-1), Oesterle (-3), Sebrango, Johansson, Viro, McIsaac, Newpower, Walman (IR)

Husso, Nedeljkovic

Without a doubt, the #1 takeaway is that we added proven NHL players to fit specific needs we have in the here and now. As shown, this pushes some less talented roster players like Suter, Oesterle, and Lindström, down in the lineup, likely closer to where they belong on a good team. It also means prospects like Berggren don’t have to immediately step into high-leverage minutes.

One of the Wings’ biggest issues the last year or two is the distinct gap between the 1st line and everyone else. Now with 2 signings, the Red Wings have gone from the underwhelming Pius Suter and a (promising) rookie in Berggren, to Andrew Copp and David Perron. Perron scored at a 71-point pace last year. Pair that and Raymond’s skills with an all-around solid center like Copp, and you’ve turned your 2nd line from “hopefully good” to a real threat. The other huge, gaping need this team had was defense.

That hole was also plugged, at least for a year, by the smart signings of not one, not two, but three solid, reliable defensemen. None of them are game-breakers or Norris Trophy candidates, but they fit the need perfectly.

This new defensive core will ensure that the Red Wings are able to ice six NHL quality defensemen each night for the first time in what feels like a long time. It’s hard to overstate the importance of that improvement.

But despite all the roster upgrades, and all the various positive impacts that will have on the team’s performance, I actually think there is still a lot of movement to go this offseason…

What To Do with All These Good Players?

This new Red Wings roster has actually created a bit of a problem. As you can see, the only prospect in the projected lineup is Edvinsson. That’s not because there aren’t others who are good enough to make the team, but there are now so many good players under contract that there doesn’t appear to be any room for the up-and-coming prospects. And this is what leads me to believe there is more in store for us this offseason.

While no one is going to give out free roster spots (both Yzerman and the organization have been clear on that policy for a long time), Yzerman surely wants to see his prospects continue to develop. And at a certain point, the only way to do that is to get some NHL game action.

Depending on where each of them are at, at least some of Edvinsson, Berggren, Söderblom, and/or Johansson could earn a roster spot. If more than one of them do, that means that one of the projected roster players would be on the outs. And don’t forget about adding Fabbri and Walman back in the mix once they recover from their surgeries too.

Because of this lineup log-jam, I think the Red Wings will approach some teams about at least one trade by the end of training camp, and quite possibly more than that. This is now officially a team in contention for the playoffs on paper.

During this week, Yzerman demonstrated that cap space and draft picks are no longer the goals; our primary targets now are impactful, productive NHL hockey players that can help this team win. And we currently have the surplus players, plus cap space, to acquire more of them.

Personally, I would like to see continued improvement of the forward core. It seems like we’ve built out a serviceable 2nd line, now we need to upgrade the 3rd and 4th. Hopefully we can do that in a meaningful way by dealing some of our defensive depth (imagine having said that a week ago!). Or maybe someone values that enigma Filip Zadina enough to give up a similarly troubled prospect who also needs a change of scenery.

It’s impossible to tell what the Captain is thinking. But even though free agency is over, it’s clear there continue to be lots of options to improve this team.