Detroit Red Wings fans are wondering what’s keeping Evgeny Svechnikov on the bench. Is it that Jeff Blashill has been playing lineups with seven defenseman and it makes him the odd man out? Is that he hasn’t been “good enough” on the ice and he sees value in other forwards?
Or is he not as valuable to the Red Wings anymore?
When Svech was sent back to Grand Rapids two weeks ago, Blashill offered this as reasoning:
"To play as a five-man unit, you got to make sure everybody is doing their job, so he has to make sure he’s doing his job in each particular instance. He’s got to make sure he’s winning battles by skating. If he does that, I think he’ll be an effective player.”"
Blashill started by saying that it came down to more than just producing points. But then was later quoted as saying that Svech’s placement on the power play was that he’s a “threat to score.”
This seems like a conflicting message. Let’s dive in a bit more.
Red Wings Need Scoring—Badly
For a team struggling to score goals right now and coming off consecutive shutouts, why would he be on the bench? Adam Erne, after potting a few goals and being effective on the power play, makes sense. Sam Gagner has been a quiet, but effective presence on the ice this year.
Odd man out? Darren Helm. I’m not going to pile on him either because Helmer has always been one of my favorite Red Wings. But like we saw with Dan Cleary, there’s just a point where that effectiveness runs its course.
From a conventional statistical standpoint, he has a 2% scoring percentage. Helm has three points (1-2) in 24 games. He’s had chances to score–especially on breakaways–but doesn’t convert.
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Svechnikov, in a smaller sample size of six games and almost four minutes less of average ice time, has four points (2-2) and a shooting percentage of 33.3%.
If we dip into advanced stats, the difference is more at 5 on 5 where Helm’s numbers outshine Svech. In ixG (Individual Expected Goals Created, Helm is at 2.96 while Svechnikov is just at 0.93. However, if we look at it per 60 minutes, Svech is at 1.03 while Helm is at .6. Looking at the defensive metrics, specifically takeaways/60, Helm is head and shoulders above Svech (1.01/0) while Svech has not been as careful with the puck when it comes to giveaways/60 (Svech: 2.22/Helm .6). This leads us to one possible conclusion, which directly correlates to Blash’s quote.
Blashill values 200 feet play over Pure Scoring
Yes, Svechnikov can be score goals at a higher clip and is more valuable on the power play than Helm. If it were up to me and many in the fan base, you would take that good with the bad and put Svech out there in the hopes that offense would be generated and goals scored. Ultimately, you’d place him with more responsible forwards to help him grow defensively while allowing him to take some chances that might lead to goals.
But this is not Blashill’s credo. We’ve seen the lineups all year and he’s already indicated that he’ll play the tight defensive system over a risky one that includes goal scorers yielding opposing scoring chances.
The frustration with this is where it places Svechnikov in the Red Wings future. Does he have a spot? Will he be trade bait as the deadline approaches? Will he be exposed in the Expansion Draft and lost for nothing?
The Red Wings roster post April 12th will reveal more than just what Steve Yzerman can acquire. It will signal more about the direction of the players left in the system.
All statistics used for this story courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.