Detroit Red Wings: A Closer Look At Goal Scoring (Or Lack Thereof)

A quick glance at the Detroit Red Wings’ box scores and it certainly paints a grim picture. When Steve Yzerman bought out Justin Abdelkader’s contract and then added the likes of Bobby Ryan, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Mathias Brome, it was to improve the offense by adding skilled forwards who would not only score goals, but generate more chances. While Ryan and Namestnikov were known and played in the NHL, Brome had thrived in the SHL and appeared ready to take the next step into the NHL.

While Ryan has certainly found the scoresheet, Namestnikov has generated chances, and Brome has been a spark offensively, only the former has filed a few under the goal column. Don’t misunderstand–this is not pointing fingers at anyone. Instead, it’s just show just how challenging it’s been for the Red Wings to score goals.

The names on the scoresheet are few: Ryan, Robby Fabbri, Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, and Tyler Bertuzzi. Out of the 17 forwards who have suited up this season in Detroit, only five have put the puck in the net. Of those finding the net, Ryan has four, Larkin and Bertuzzi have three, and Mantha and Fabbri with one apiece. Conventionally, it’s not a stretch to see why Detroit is struggling.

Even strength goals have been another story. Though the power play has struggled, (the second unit especially due to guys being put into Covid Protocol), the man advantage has accounted for exactly half of the Red Wings goals. So not only are the same players scoring goals, they’re potting half of them on the power play.

But what if we take an even closer look at how they’re converting goals. Looking at high danger zones, and Detroit’s rate of conversion, it’s even more telling as to just how much the Red Wings aren’t scoring.

I looked first at Goals off of High Danger Scoring Chances Percentage (HDGF%), which measures the conversion rate of teams scoring in high danger areas. (For transparency purposes, I’m using all of the data from Natural Stat Trick. I’m also using the definition given for danger zones by the late, great site, War on Ice). I also included High Danger Scoring Chances Percentage (HDCF%),  Goals For Percentage (GF%), and Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%).

Here’s where the Wings clock in:

• Goals off of High Danger Scoring Chances (HDGF%) – 33.3% (t29 out of 31 teams)
• High Danger Scoring Chances (HDCF%) – 48.1% (19 out of 31 teams)
• Goals For Percentage (GF%) – 31.58% (31 out of 31)
• Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%) –  45.11% (26 out of 31)

It isn’t a mystery, then, when taking a look at both conventional and a sampling of advanced stats why the Red Wings are struggling to score goals.  A lack of secondary scoring along with a low conversion of chances in high danger areas is a recipe of disaster. I specifically chose HDGF% because it shows that in areas where they should be scoring, they’re just not able to convert.

So the natural follow up question is this: How does this change? We’ll look into that later this week.