Detroit Red Wings take on the NHL’s best Tampa Bay Lightning

The Detroit Red Wings are playing the best team in NHL for the second time in six nights. With twelve games remaining in the season, these two teams could hardly be further apart.

As the Detroit Red Wings drift to the bottom of the league, the Lightning are emerging as a top Stanley Cup contender. After losing 3-2 in Tampa last Saturday, the Wings look to avenge that loss tonight on home ice.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are very good, and that is an understatement. They have ten more wins (53) than the next closest team, and sixteen more points (110). They have an astounding goal differential (a telling statistic) of +89, almost doubling that of Calgary in second place. With twelve games left, they are the only team in the league to clinch a playoff spot. In just about every way, they are dominating the NHL.  On the other hand, the Detroit Red Wings are not very good.

Only the Ottawa Senators have fewer wins and points. The Red Wings are on pace to have their worst season in three years–since missing the playoffs for the first time. They are allowing more goals on average and not scoring enough to keep up. It is a sad state of affairs. Needless to say, they will have their hands full this evening.

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The Lightning do score a lot of goals, so the Red Wings will have to go on the offensive early to have a chance. Without scoring leader, Dylan Larkin, who is still out with a neck injury, those goals will have to come from somewhere else. Frans Nielsen has had some success this season:  he recorded a hat trick against Tampa Bay back in December. Andreas Athanasiou will also have to bear some of the weight. He has been playing solid offense lately, adding two goals in the past week.

For the Lightning, it is hard to look past Nikita Kucherov. The All-Star is such a dominant force at the wing; he leads the league with 111 points. On the defensive side of the ice, Ryan McDonagh is having the best season of his career while maintaining a +/- of 32. If the Red Wings can stifle some of their output, tonight could end up close, like on Saturday.

Key Stat: What holes, if any, do the Lightning have that the Red Wings could exploit? The truth is, not many. In reality, they are performing better than they should be. Expected Goals, a statistic that essentially measures goals as compared to the league average, predicts them scoring less and giving up more than they actually are (seen here on Hockey Reference).

This means that a much higher percentage of shots turn into goals; their 11.8% shooting percentage demonstrates just that. Of course, this could just be good luck. Most of this will fall on Jimmy Howard, but the Red Wings defenders could help the cause by limiting open shots.

Probable Goalies: Jimmy Howard (Detroit) 3.02 GAA | 0.907 SV% and Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay) 2.23 GAA | 0.931 SV%

Opposing Blog: Bolts by the Bay

TV/Radio: Fox Sports Detroit, WXYT

Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI

Time: 7:30 pm EST

Odds: Tampa Bay -400

Prediction: The Lightning are too good, and the Wings have little incentive to win. Even though they played a close game on Saturday, and they are on home ice tonight, the Detroit Red Wings will lose their fourth straight. It may be depressing, sure, but fans have to keep their eyes on the horizon.