Detroit Red Wings: Jeff Blashill should consider adjusting the top line
The Detroit Red Wings could try a lot of things to find a winning recipe, but I think Blashill needs to put our three young guns together on a line.
Putting Athanasiou, Larkin, and Mantha together might just give us that boost the Red Wings need to start winning again. In the contest with the Anaheim Ducks this past week where the Detroit Red Wings managed a 3-1 victory at Little Caesars Arena.
The first goal the Red Wings scored was a beautiful goal scored by Anthony Mantha assisted by Andreas Athanasiou and Dylan Larkin.
It truly was a nice setup, Larkin gained the line did a little side pass to Athanasiou who sent it across under one defender’s stick and off another’s onto Mantha’s stick who sent it home for the goal.
Mantha from Athanasiou and Larkin. #LGRW @DTE_Energy pic.twitter.com/GSbP8DPGsL
— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) January 16, 2019
This goal made is simply just one of the reasons that I think Coach Jeff Blashill should be playing Athanasiou, Larkin, and Mantha on a line together. The simplest explanation my hockey fan eyes can give is that they produce as a line, they aren’t rookies anymore, and the analytics (even though a small sample size) says its better for the team.
All of the following numbers come from the tools available at Corsica Hockey and Natural Stat Trick. Coach Blashill has played these three players together in 11 total games this year totaling 9:23 in ice time as a line. The sample size is tiny, but the percentages still show that they have success when playing together.
A deeper look into the analytics:
To point out the obvious, the line has scored one goal and has had zero scored against them while out there together. The lines Corsi For Percentage(CF%) sits at 75% essentially meaning that the line controlled 75% of the shots taken while these players were on the ice. The line has a PDO of 125 which is FAR better than the teams PDO as well as the PDO of the teams’ lines without any of the three players.
Since the sample size is low for these players as a line, let me explain the advantages of putting these three together based off of individual production. Looking at the analytics of it, both Larkin and Mantha posses a CF% that is higher than the lines without them, and the team as a whole. This means that these two are good at being able to control the puck and influence over half of the shots that are taken when they’re on the ice.
Athanasiou’s CF% is just a slice under the teams 47.9% coming in at 47.3%. It sure seems like Athanasiou’s CF% would be able to be higher if he were moved onto a line with Larkin and Mantha. Even with the small sample sizes, it is important to note that the line produced multiple scoring chances for the Red Wings and gave up zero on the other end of the ice.
The other statistic I would like to point to in terms of analytics is the Zone-Start Ratio (ZSR) which measures the number of times players are starting their shifts in the offensive zone relative to the neutral and defensive zones or an on the fly start.
Athanasiou, Larkin, and Mantha all come in on the teams top ten lists for ZSR on the Red Wings. Being able to start in the offensive zone would only allow these three to manufacture more scoring chances and hopefully produce more goals. Giving these three the most possible chances to score and produce points is ultimately going to allow the three to develop good chemistry as a line for the coming years.
The conclusion and final thoughts:
Octopus Thrower site expert Bob Heyrman wrote a while back that he thought moving Athanasiou up to the second line center position would boost his production as well as the Detroit Red Wings. I would be okay with settling for this if Blashill won’t put all three together, but to me, the numbers analytically just scream that they need to be put together.
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I would like to see Blashill test the line out in games, let them play together and see what happens because analytically, all signs point to them being able to produce, and being able to help the Red Wings win.
This whole opinion is based merely off of analytics and personal bias, I understand that there is more to hockey than just analytics. Take Mike Green, for example, I recently wrote about his impact on the ice being able to help the Detroit Red Wings win, and when I looked at the analytics, they did not really back that statement up.
Analytics and personal traits are two vastly different things, and in terms of Green, his veteran presence is what helps the Red Wings win. In this case with Athanasiou, Larkin, and Mantha it seems like they can really develop as players individually as well as a line for the immediate future. It appears that this just shows how analytics are extremely helpful when they’re used correctly.
Next. How Much Does Mike Green Impact the Detroit Red Wings Lineup?. dark
Also, if you would like to see any of the stats yourself, they are in the links above, as well as here where I combined the stats I looked at onto one spreadsheet page.