The Detroit Red Wings currently sit in second place in the Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division, a single point behind the Tampa Bay Lightning having played one fewer game. Since the January 1st, a stretch that included a six-game road trip, they have won seven of 9 games and have vaulted themselves into the conversation of serious Stanley Cup contenders.
On March 2nd, NHL teams will have their last chance to add any players by trade whom they think will help them for the stretch run. Since the Stanley Cup run in 2009, five trading deadlines have passed. Over that time, there have been two years where the Red Wings made significant trades (Kyle Quincey in 2012 and David Legwand in 2014) and three years where no significant moves were made (2010, 2011, 2013). In 2012 and 2014 combined, the Red Wings traded away a first round draft pick, a second round draft pick, and prospect Calle Jarnkrok who was ranked by multiple outlets among the top 50 NHL prospects at the time.
In those seasons, the Red Wings won a combined two playoff games and neither player was re-signed before reaching free agency.
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It is not as if rentals or other deadline deals are always bad, but context matters. Teams who are not Stanley Cup contenders should never be trading future assets (prospects, draft picks) for players who are not going to make them Stanley Cup contenders. Were the Red Wings Cup contenders after acquiring Legwand? Of course not, so why give up a top 50 prospect and second round pick for him? They would have been better off in the long-term doing nothing.
Before developing a deadline strategy, it is important to accurately identify where your team is currently at and in which direction they are trending. I’ve stated already that I believe the Red Wings are Stanley Cup contenders, so what should they be looking to do at the deadline this season? Even though they are contenders, the answer is still nothing.
The Detroit Red Wings are obviously trending upwards but I am not sure they have neared their peak just yet. In order to reach the highest peak possible and to remain near that peak for a long as possible, the Red Wings will need a steady stream of NHL players from their prospect system. At this point, the Red Wings need to hold on to as many prospects as they can so they have as many chances as possible to produce quality NHL players.
The only type of trade I would consider is one for a young player signed to a multi-year contract who offers something currently not found in our system. Do we have an offensive defenseman who will be as good as Keith Yandle? Probably not. He is 28 years old and signed until the end of next season. He is an example of the type of player the Red Wings should be targeting. The problem with players of that ilk, is that teams only trade them for a premium. That means the starting point in negotiation is probably the Red Wings 2015 first round draft pick and either Anthony Mantha or Dylan Larkin. To me, all of those are non-starters for any trade. That’s why the Red Wings should do nothing. Any player who is good enough and has the contract situation to be appealing to the Red Wings will cost more than they should want to pay. Any player who can be acquired for less will not present much, if any, upgrade over the current roster.
There will be a time in the near future when giving up future assets to make the team better now will make sense. But for this trade deadline, the Red Wings need to hold on to their assets and keep building for the future.
Do you agree? What do you think should be the Detroit Red Wings’ strategy heading into the March 2nd trading deadline?