How Good Are The Red Wings?
At a record of 6-4-3, the Detroit Red Wings occupy third place in the NHL’s Atlantic Division. If we account for the differences in games played, the Red Wings are fifth in the Eastern Conference and tied for 11th in the NHL with a point percentage of 61.5%. Through just about 16% of the regular season, the Red Wings have been a tough team to peg. Are they a legitimate Cup contender teeming with creativity and playmaking flourish as they appeared against the Los Angeles Kings? Or are they the sluggish, clumsy team that lost to the tank-mode Buffalo Sabres and followed it up with a somehow more embarrassing loss to the Ottawa Senators?
It has been one of those kinds of weeks.
As it nearly always is with such either-or questions, the answer is undoubtedly somewhere in between. By looking at the Red Wings performance so far this season though, we can hope to glean some indication of which extreme they will end up closer to in the end.
Even Strength 5-on-5
The Red Wings have played at 5-on-5 in 75% of game time so it is important to look how they perform in this situation. The Red Wings have slightly outscored their opponents at 5-on-5 by a margin of 21-19. The differential of +2 is tied for 14th best in the NHL. This makes sense given the Red Wings record and the number of close games they have played.
Going deeper than goals, we can look at what leads to goals and has even shown to be more predictive of future wins than goals by looking at team Fenwick Close (a measure of puck possession when the game is close). The Red Wings are currently 12th in the NHL in FenwickClose% at 51.58% (meaning the Red Wings have taken 51.58% of unblocked shot attempts and their opponents have taken 48.42%). While it is nice to be on the right side of 50%, the margin is razor-thin.
For some perspective, the median end of the season ranking in Fenwick Close for Stanley Cup winners is 3rd. This means as many Cup winners have finished 1st and 2nd as have finished 4th through 30th. While a lot can change between now and the end of the year, it does not appear that the Red Wings are even close to the elite puck possession Red Wings teams from 2006-2010.
In goal, the Red Wings have benefitted from more consistent play from their goaltenders. Still though, at 5-on-5 the Red Wings team save percentage is 92.5% which is only slightly above the league average this year of 92.3%. As with the measures we have discussed above, the Red Wings are middle of the pack at 15th overall.
Special Teams
An early season storyline so far has been the Red Wings’ two-faced special teams. While their penalty kill unit has performed like a well-oiled machine, the Red Wings power play has performed like a well-oiled machine that was disassembled and strewn randomly about the floor.
At 88.9% efficiency, the penalty kill has been the third best in the NHL. Can they keep it? A major reason for the success of their penalty kill has been that their goaltenders have stopped 92.5% of shots while short a man. You may notice that this is the same percentage they have stopped while playing 5-on-5. The team with the best shorthanded save percentage last season only posted a modest-by-comparison 90.8% and the average for all teams over the past few years is around 87.1% Given all this, it is very likely that the Red Wings will not be able to sustain such a high save percentage on the penalty kill. Add that to the fact that the Red Wings penalty kill has allowed the 9th highest shot rate and it seems as though the early season success of the penalty kill may not last all season.
The power play, despite picking up in recent games, still sits solidly in the bottom third of the league as 24th best at 13.7% efficiency. This is driven by being 24th best in shot rate and 23rd best shooting percentage (9.52%) with the man advantage. They are not generating shots and they are not finishing on the shots they do get. You could look at the talent on the roster and predict that their shooting percentage will likely end up closer to the league wide average of about 13% but that will not mean much if they continue to fail to generate shots.
Conclusion
What does it all mean? It appears as though the Red Wings are a talented but unremarkable team. The only area where the team appears to have distinguished itself is on the penalty kill but even then there is reason to think they will not keep up the pace. Could they improve along the way and become a legitimate Cup contender? It is certainly possible. Right now though, it looks like Red Wings fans should prepare themselves for an up and down season ending with a down to the wire playoff push.
Statistics cited courtesy of war-on-ice.com and NHL.com