Could the Detroit Red Wings Trade Jimmy Howard to the Sharks?

Sportsnet hockey writer/insider Elliotte Friedman writes a weekly column hockey musings called “30 Thoughts.” On Wednesday, he shared the following thoughts on the San Jose Sharks:

"11. It looks like there will be a changing of the guard in goal for the Sharks. Antti Niemi’s name is already out there, as it appears unlikely San Jose will re-sign him. Alex Stalock hasn’t grabbed the job, and Troy Grosenick is out of the lineup in AHL Worcester. That has led to all sorts of speculation GM Doug Wilson is interested in a goalie (with term) to stabilize the position. (He would not comment.)"

This made me think about the Red Wings current goalie situation. Jimmy Howard is currently entrenched as the Red Wings’ starting goaltender and has been since earning the job midway through the 2009-2010 season. However, Red Wings #3 ranked prospect Petr Mrazek will likely be making the full time jump to the NHL next year. Given Mrazek’s AHL track record and his limited performance in the NHL so far, he looks like a goaltender capable of handing starting duties for an NHL team soon if he is not already.

Howard is under contract until 2019, at which point he will 35 years old and likely past his peak performing years. Mrazek will be 27 then and arguably just starting them. This would allow the Red Wings to transfer the full-time goaltending duties from Howard to Mrazek This is perhaps a perfect setup of which many teams are undoubtedly envious.

But what if the Red Wings were confident that Mrazek could be as good or nearly as good as Howard much sooner than that? Could they look to move Howard and hand the reins the Mrazek? If so, San Jose could be the perfect fit.

Howard has four years remaining on his contract which carries and average annual value (AAV or cap hit) of $5,291,667 (per Sportrac. This year, that cap hit is the 13th highest among NHL goaltenders. What are the Red Wings getting for their money? Using 5-on-5 Adjusted Save Percentage (AdSV%) from war-on-ice.com (explained here), we can compare Howard to other goaltenders over the past four seasons (click to enlarge):

There were 45 goaltenders who have played at least 3000 minutes of 5-on-5 time over that period and I have graphed the top 30 above. It shows Jimmy Howard having the third highest AdSV% at 93.7%. That is not to say that Howard is the third best goaltender in the NHL but I think at the very least you can conclude that Howard is at least a capable starting goaltender because insofar as a goaltender’s job is to stop a high percentage of shots, Jimmy Howard has been doing his job. Another important consideration in a true starting goaltender is durability and for the most part Howard has delivered there. Over the same stretch as the above graph Howard has played the 14th most minutes and has played in 69% of the Red Wings’ games over that time.

How does this relate to Friedman’s statement above?

The Sharks could be looking for a quality goaltender with term? The Red Wings have one. Why might the Red Wings trade theirs? Well that brings us back to Petr Mrazek. In his three-plus seasons in the AHL he has posted a 91.8% save percentage. In his limited NHL action, his 93.1% AdSV% is not much of a drop off from Howard. It is important to acknowledge that he has not played enough time in the NHL for any data to be dispositive but so far he has played very well. Good enough to turn over the starting job to him? I am not sure about that but his future certainly looks promising. Trading a proven starter and turning the job over to a 23 year old with less than 40 games of experience would definitely be risky.

The reason the Red Wings might want to consider such a risk? The market for goaltenders is frequently unpredictable. There are usually good goaltenders available in free agency which teams can use as stop-gaps and the teams who are true contenders are rarely in the market looking for a goalie. This means that starting-quality goaltenders with time left on their contract are not involved in many trades. In this case, a Sharks team that will be looking to win now and in the immediate future may be interested in acquiring a quality goaltender and reportedly will not be scared off by term. Teams in such a situation do not come around very often.

Since the Red Wings have something that could be a very valuable asset in Howard and a younger, cheaper player waiting in the Wings who may be able to replace that production, the Red Wings should jump at the opportunity to acquire the kind of pieces they could get from trading Howard. The Sharks do not appear to be in a position where they need a goaltender for this year so the Red Wings should play out this season and take a long hard look at whether or not Mrazek is ready to handle the starting goaltender duties.

If he is, it might be time to trade Jimmy.